***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.9 15.7 1.2 71.4 69.6 10.9 11.8 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 11.7 12.2 14.8 0.6 61.1 60.0 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 14.7 14.8 15.5 1.0 68.3 66.5 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 10.7 11.0 12.8 1.0 70.2 67.8 8.3 9.5 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 11.5 11.6 13.7 1.1 71.1 69.4 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 10.5 10.9 11.1 1.3 76.1 73.6 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 12.0 12.7 15.2 0.9 65.9 64.4 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 5.7 6.2 10.6 0.6 61.7 60.5 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 12.6 12.8 13.7 1.1 71.2 69.7 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 11.5 12.0 11.6 0.7 64.0 62.7 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 11.6 11.7 13.1 1.0 69.4 68.1 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 48 52 100 10.0 10.1 11.9 0.9 67.2 65.3 8.4 9.2 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 10.9 11.1 12.0 1.1 71.1 69.5 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 12.0 12.6 13.0 0.7 63.6 62.4 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 13.4 13.9 15.0 1.8 83.4 81.3 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.8 12.7 1.2 72.5 70.7 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 12.2 12.6 14.4 0.5 59.9 59.0 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 10.1 10.6 11.0 0.6 62.5 61.2 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 11.9 12.2 14.8 0.5 60.1 59.1 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 6.2 6.4 9.1 0.4 58.3 57.4 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 12.2 12.4 14.8 1.1 71.3 69.7 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 11.3 11.3 14.4 0.2 54.0 53.7 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 11.2 11.6 14.7 0.5 60.1 59.1 10.1 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 11.5 12.2 13.2 0.9 66.8 65.3 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 12.5 12.6 14.9 1.1 69.8 68.1 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 11.1 11.4 11.4 1.1 71.5 69.2 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.4 15.3 1.3 72.1 70.3 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 11.1 11.6 13.5 1.5 78.2 76.2 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 9.5 9.6 10.0 0.3 56.2 55.6 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 12.2 12.8 15.2 0.8 63.9 62.6 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------