***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9.4 9.7 12.6 -1.1 31.2 34.1 9.8 10.8 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 9.3 9.5 12.0 -1.3 27.4 31.0 9.8 10.8 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 11.8 12.1 12.8 -1.0 32.1 34.9 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.3 7.8 10.3 -0.7 37.5 40.3 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 8.6 9.1 10.9 -0.7 36.2 39.2 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 7.9 8.4 8.7 -0.6 37.1 40.4 8.2 9.1 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 9.7 9.9 12.2 -1.3 28.5 31.6 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.7 4.0 8.5 -0.9 32.0 35.9 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 9.7 10.2 11.0 -0.7 36.9 39.5 10.0 10.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 9.5 9.9 9.3 -0.8 33.5 37.0 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 9.1 9.5 10.4 -0.7 36.5 39.3 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 8.0 8.4 9.4 -0.8 33.8 37.4 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 8.3 8.8 9.2 -0.9 33.7 37.6 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.3 10.4 10.6 -1.0 32.0 35.3 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.2 12.2 -0.1 47.6 47.4 10.6 11.3 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 9.9 10.4 9.9 -0.7 36.5 39.4 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 9.8 9.8 11.7 -1.4 26.5 29.8 10.2 11.2 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 8.3 8.7 8.6 -0.9 33.4 36.9 8.6 9.7 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 9.7 9.8 12.2 -1.2 28.6 32.0 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 4.4 4.7 6.7 -1.1 29.0 33.6 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.3 9.7 12.1 -0.8 34.4 37.3 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 8.8 8.8 11.8 -1.4 25.9 29.2 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 9.3 9.4 12.2 -1.1 30.7 34.0 9.5 10.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 9.6 10.0 10.6 -0.8 35.1 37.9 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 9.8 10.1 11.6 -1.1 31.5 35.1 10.2 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 8.7 9.1 8.7 -1.0 32.5 37.1 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 9.4 9.9 12.0 -1.2 31.3 34.3 10.0 11.3 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 8.5 9.2 10.9 -0.4 43.3 44.3 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.4 7.6 7.8 -1.0 30.3 34.3 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 9.7 9.8 12.4 -1.2 29.0 32.3 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------