***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 8.9 9.8 12.1 -0.4 42.9 44.1 9.2 10.2 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.8 9.6 11.7 -0.5 41.3 42.6 9.0 10.2 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 11.1 12.1 12.3 -0.2 46.3 46.5 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.2 7.8 9.7 -0.1 48.9 47.9 6.6 7.9 9.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 7.6 9.1 9.8 -0.1 47.4 46.7 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.6 8.4 0.2 53.0 51.0 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 9.3 10.0 11.9 -0.5 42.2 43.3 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 2.9 4.0 8.0 -0.1 48.0 48.1 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 8.9 10.1 10.1 -0.1 47.5 46.8 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 8.8 9.8 8.7 -0.2 46.9 46.7 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 8.4 9.5 9.2 -0.1 48.0 47.4 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.4 8.5 8.5 -0.1 48.5 48.3 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 8.2 9.0 8.1 -0.2 46.6 46.5 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 9.5 10.3 9.8 -0.4 43.2 43.9 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.7 11.0 0.2 54.1 51.2 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.3 8.8 -0.1 48.3 47.5 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 9.2 9.8 11.5 -0.6 40.8 42.1 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 7.8 8.8 7.8 -0.2 45.9 45.8 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 9.1 9.8 11.7 -0.5 42.3 43.4 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.2 4.9 6.0 -0.3 44.4 45.3 4.4 5.2 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 8.5 9.6 11.4 -0.2 45.8 45.9 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 8.2 8.8 11.3 -0.6 39.3 41.1 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 8.6 9.5 11.7 -0.3 44.7 45.3 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 8.8 9.7 9.8 -0.1 47.3 46.9 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 8.8 9.9 10.8 -0.4 44.0 44.9 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 8.3 9.1 7.9 -0.2 47.0 47.1 8.4 9.3 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 8.7 9.9 11.4 -0.5 42.5 43.7 9.1 10.5 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 7.6 9.0 10.0 0.1 51.6 49.5 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.6 7.2 -0.3 44.7 45.2 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.1 12.0 -0.5 42.5 43.6 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------