***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9.7 10.4 12.9 -0.1 47.7 48.3 9.9 10.5 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 9.5 10.0 12.3 -0.4 39.8 41.9 9.7 10.5 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 11.9 12.6 13.0 -0.1 48.6 49.2 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.3 10.4 0.1 54.1 53.0 7.5 8.2 8.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.7 10.9 0.1 53.5 52.6 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.0 8.9 0.3 59.1 56.7 8.0 8.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 9.9 10.4 12.5 -0.3 42.7 44.2 10.1 10.7 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.8 4.5 8.5 -0.1 47.1 48.3 4.0 4.6 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.8 11.0 0.1 54.1 53.3 10.0 10.6 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.2 9.3 -0.1 48.4 49.1 9.6 10.3 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.1 9.9 10.3 0.1 52.7 52.1 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.7 9.3 0.0 50.6 50.7 8.0 8.6 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.3 9.1 0.0 51.4 51.3 8.6 9.2 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.6 10.6 -0.2 44.2 46.0 10.2 10.8 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 11.5 11.4 12.0 0.6 67.7 62.9 10.2 10.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.8 9.8 0.1 54.3 53.3 10.0 10.6 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.0 10.4 12.0 -0.4 38.1 40.6 10.2 10.8 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.0 8.6 -0.1 46.6 47.9 8.4 9.1 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 9.8 10.3 12.4 -0.3 40.7 42.8 10.0 10.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.1 6.8 -0.3 42.3 45.0 4.8 5.4 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 9.4 10.2 12.2 0.1 51.6 51.5 9.5 10.2 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 9.0 9.3 11.9 -0.5 35.2 38.3 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.8 12.3 -0.2 43.3 45.2 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.1 10.6 0.0 49.9 50.3 9.5 10.1 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.6 11.8 -0.1 48.1 48.6 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.5 8.8 0.0 50.2 50.3 8.9 9.4 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 9.9 10.8 12.3 -0.1 48.0 48.5 10.0 10.9 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.5 10.8 0.4 62.3 59.1 8.3 9.0 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.0 7.9 -0.2 42.4 45.0 7.7 8.3 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 10.0 10.6 12.6 -0.3 42.6 44.2 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------