***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 24.9 24.2 24.4 -0.1 48.4 48.4 22.7 24.3 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.0 23.4 23.9 -0.8 39.4 40.4 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 25.1 24.5 24.6 0.0 49.5 49.3 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 19.5 20.2 23.1 1.7 74.7 69.5 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 25.7 26.0 23.6 0.7 59.5 57.2 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 25.9 26.2 22.1 1.6 71.5 67.4 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.6 23.1 23.8 -0.7 39.5 40.4 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.3 21.3 0.6 57.8 55.9 12.2 13.6 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 25.2 25.9 24.6 0.9 62.8 59.8 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.2 22.5 0.6 58.2 56.1 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 25.4 25.8 23.9 0.8 60.9 58.2 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 24.7 25.4 22.7 0.9 63.0 60.0 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 25.7 26.3 23.6 0.8 61.2 58.8 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.2 23.8 22.7 -0.7 40.5 41.7 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 27.1 28.5 26.1 2.5 84.3 78.8 23.7 25.2 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 26.3 27.3 23.7 1.1 65.9 62.3 24.1 25.7 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 21.6 22.1 23.2 -1.1 34.7 35.9 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 24.3 23.6 21.0 0.0 49.7 49.3 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.8 23.4 24.1 -0.6 41.8 42.6 22.7 24.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.4 19.4 18.9 -0.3 46.1 46.6 18.3 19.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.1 24.7 0.2 53.3 52.4 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 21.7 22.0 22.6 -1.7 26.9 28.8 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 24.8 24.2 24.5 -0.1 48.3 48.4 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.3 23.2 0.0 49.4 49.2 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.5 23.3 0.0 50.1 49.9 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 25.5 26.3 22.4 1.0 64.7 61.8 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.0 23.6 -0.2 46.3 46.7 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 27.2 28.2 24.5 2.2 80.5 74.9 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 17.3 18.5 20.0 -0.5 43.6 44.4 17.6 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.8 23.5 24.1 -0.6 41.7 42.5 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------