***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 20.8 21.8 22.4 -0.9 38.8 41.0 21.3 22.7 24.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 21.3 21.8 22.0 -1.3 33.9 36.9 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 21.3 22.5 22.6 -0.8 40.1 42.3 21.8 23.4 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.1 21.2 0.6 57.9 55.8 14.8 16.4 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 21.9 23.6 21.5 -0.2 47.7 48.2 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 21.2 23.0 19.5 -0.1 49.0 49.5 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 20.9 21.4 21.9 -1.3 33.9 36.7 21.3 22.8 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 11.1 12.5 19.5 -0.3 45.9 47.6 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 21.6 23.4 22.2 -0.1 48.6 48.8 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 21.3 22.9 20.5 -0.3 46.4 47.5 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 21.8 23.5 21.7 -0.1 48.3 48.7 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 20.9 22.9 20.8 -0.1 48.8 49.6 21.3 23.0 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.1 23.7 20.9 -0.3 46.1 47.5 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 21.1 21.8 20.8 -1.2 35.3 39.0 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 24.1 24.8 23.3 1.0 64.2 60.5 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.8 24.6 21.4 0.0 50.1 50.1 23.0 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 20.5 20.7 21.2 -1.6 30.2 33.9 21.0 22.4 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 20.4 21.9 19.5 -0.5 43.7 45.6 20.8 22.5 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 21.0 21.7 22.2 -1.2 35.7 38.6 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 16.9 18.1 17.3 -0.6 42.0 45.1 17.2 18.8 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 21.5 22.8 22.5 -0.6 42.8 44.4 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 21.1 21.0 21.0 -1.9 27.1 31.3 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 21.0 22.2 22.4 -0.8 39.9 42.5 21.6 23.2 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 21.0 22.4 21.2 -0.6 42.0 44.2 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 21.3 22.4 21.2 -0.7 41.1 43.1 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 21.8 23.8 20.4 0.0 49.6 50.2 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 21.1 22.0 21.6 -0.9 37.7 40.2 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.8 22.2 0.8 61.0 58.0 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 16.0 17.2 18.5 -0.8 40.7 43.7 16.4 18.1 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 21.1 21.8 22.2 -1.2 35.7 38.4 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------