***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 22.7 22.2 22.2 -0.2 45.8 46.7 21.5 22.4 23.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 21.6 22.2 21.8 -0.6 39.5 41.3 21.9 22.8 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.8 22.5 -0.1 48.4 48.8 22.0 22.9 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 16.8 17.0 21.0 1.2 71.6 66.4 14.8 15.8 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.6 21.3 0.5 58.6 56.4 22.3 23.2 24.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 22.7 23.1 19.6 0.8 65.4 61.4 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 21.4 21.9 21.8 -0.6 39.7 41.5 21.5 22.4 23.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.7 19.6 0.4 58.2 56.3 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 23.3 23.4 21.9 0.5 59.2 57.0 22.1 23.0 23.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 23.0 23.0 20.4 0.4 57.3 55.4 21.7 22.6 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.6 21.5 0.6 60.6 57.8 22.2 23.1 23.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 22.8 23.1 20.8 0.7 62.6 59.5 21.5 22.4 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.9 20.8 0.5 59.6 57.4 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 21.7 22.5 20.7 -0.5 40.4 42.6 22.0 23.0 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 24.0 24.4 22.7 1.5 78.4 72.2 22.1 22.9 23.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 24.2 24.7 21.3 0.8 64.7 60.9 23.0 23.9 24.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 20.9 21.2 21.3 -0.8 35.3 37.8 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 22.3 22.1 19.6 0.1 52.1 51.7 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 21.4 22.1 22.1 -0.5 41.9 43.3 21.7 22.5 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 18.7 18.3 17.3 0.0 50.2 50.6 17.4 18.3 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 23.3 23.0 22.2 0.1 51.4 51.1 22.1 22.9 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 21.4 21.6 21.0 -1.1 30.1 33.4 21.8 22.7 23.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 21.7 22.6 22.3 -0.2 47.0 47.6 21.9 22.8 23.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 21.7 22.8 21.1 0.0 50.4 50.2 21.8 22.8 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 22.8 22.5 20.9 0.0 49.1 49.3 21.7 22.5 23.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 24.2 24.0 20.4 0.8 65.1 61.7 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.3 21.4 -0.3 44.5 45.7 21.7 22.6 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 24.2 24.5 21.8 1.4 75.9 69.9 22.2 23.1 23.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 16.5 17.5 18.6 -0.1 47.3 48.1 16.7 17.6 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 21.5 22.1 22.0 -0.5 41.5 43.1 21.6 22.5 23.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------