***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 12.9 17.9 11.7 108.0 67.7 59.6 4.8 9.7 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.3 16.2 11.3 110.8 68.4 60.2 4.5 8.7 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 9.9 15.1 11.1 106.1 67.3 60.0 3.5 7.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.5 10.1 86.7 59.9 50.5 3.9 8.1 14.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.2 12.5 10.2 99.5 64.1 54.2 3.6 7.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.2 8.2 73.5 53.7 43.1 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.8 15.1 11.0 107.8 67.6 60.1 3.9 8.0 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 16.1 17.8 12.0 91.4 60.6 51.8 7.0 12.7 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.7 11.5 10.0 95.1 62.6 53.1 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 11.5 12.5 11.5 89.9 60.2 51.2 5.2 9.3 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.0 9.3 86.4 59.8 49.6 3.5 7.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.3 11.2 10.2 96.7 63.1 53.6 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.5 10.0 9.7 94.2 62.6 52.4 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 22.2 24.5 16.4 127.3 72.5 66.0 4.7 10.5 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.3 6.8 7.6 76.3 57.1 44.5 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.8 10.4 9.6 96.0 63.2 51.5 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 16.7 17.5 12.6 119.9 70.8 62.6 4.1 8.4 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 14.6 19.1 14.4 105.2 65.3 57.1 6.5 12.0 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 10.8 16.3 11.9 114.8 69.5 61.9 4.3 8.6 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 16.2 20.8 15.3 105.6 65.2 56.9 8.2 13.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.8 15.8 10.8 103.9 66.1 57.8 4.8 9.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 16.7 18.6 13.9 123.9 72.0 64.7 3.5 7.8 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 14.5 16.3 13.2 125.5 72.2 65.7 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 12.2 18.8 13.2 109.5 67.8 60.8 4.4 9.7 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 18.8 19.3 13.7 116.7 70.1 62.3 4.6 9.5 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.1 11.2 10.2 104.8 66.2 56.6 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 20.1 20.1 13.2 113.4 69.4 61.3 3.8 9.1 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.1 8.2 78.1 56.6 45.9 2.8 5.7 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 18.8 26.1 16.1 113.6 67.9 59.3 8.0 15.0 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 10.9 15.9 11.4 111.4 68.7 60.4 4.3 8.6 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------