***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 10.1 10.2 94.3 62.4 47.5 3.3 6.5 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.7 10.2 10.1 95.1 62.6 47.5 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.9 12.1 10.3 95.9 62.4 49.7 4.6 8.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.1 9.2 81.9 59.1 43.6 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.4 7.0 9.5 88.4 60.3 44.4 2.2 4.8 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.6 7.6 9.6 74.7 55.7 40.6 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.7 11.1 10.3 97.2 63.7 47.9 3.7 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.1 10.8 10.6 83.7 58.1 44.7 3.6 7.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.6 10.0 90.4 60.5 45.9 2.7 5.7 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.8 9.4 11.0 87.7 59.5 45.9 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.9 7.3 10.1 87.1 59.0 45.4 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.0 6.9 9.5 84.7 58.6 44.2 2.9 5.3 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.3 8.7 9.9 83.3 59.1 43.1 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.6 15.2 13.3 96.3 62.6 51.3 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.5 7.2 8.5 76.7 58.8 42.8 2.1 4.9 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.5 9.6 83.2 58.6 43.6 2.5 4.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.4 10.1 12.0 104.4 66.2 48.7 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.0 10.6 12.2 89.2 59.4 46.9 3.2 7.3 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.2 10.3 96.0 62.6 48.8 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 11.8 14.4 94.4 61.6 50.1 3.2 7.3 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.6 11.8 10.0 90.7 60.7 46.2 3.9 8.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.8 11.9 12.8 110.3 67.6 49.7 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.1 12.0 11.3 101.1 64.4 52.4 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.1 12.3 11.4 88.9 59.6 47.8 4.3 8.8 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.4 11.3 91.6 61.3 46.0 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.6 9.3 79.5 56.9 42.2 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.4 9.1 11.3 94.1 62.1 46.8 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.4 6.7 8.7 78.9 58.9 42.8 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.3 16.7 13.1 89.6 59.3 47.0 5.5 11.7 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.7 7.9 9.5 90.1 60.9 46.0 2.5 5.3 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------