***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.9 9.7 82.8 60.5 43.4 2.6 5.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.2 10.5 93.0 62.8 41.5 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.0 10.0 9.8 85.3 61.0 43.5 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.4 15.4 9.0 74.9 57.7 43.0 4.9 11.2 21.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.1 11.4 8.8 77.6 58.5 43.4 3.9 8.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.6 9.7 8.6 68.7 53.9 42.4 3.8 8.4 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.3 9.2 10.4 91.7 62.7 41.7 3.0 6.1 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.9 16.0 10.1 80.3 58.6 45.4 6.1 12.1 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.7 9.4 79.7 58.8 43.8 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.7 13.1 10.4 80.4 58.6 44.5 5.0 9.9 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.1 11.9 8.5 76.4 57.6 43.2 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.1 11.4 8.4 76.5 57.6 44.4 4.9 9.0 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.7 10.5 8.5 72.6 56.2 44.1 4.2 8.4 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.3 14.6 13.8 93.8 63.0 45.2 5.8 10.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.8 11.0 8.6 76.9 59.0 42.8 3.2 7.5 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.0 9.0 8.1 70.6 55.9 42.1 3.8 7.4 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.2 6.7 10.8 91.9 62.8 40.0 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.4 11.8 82.7 58.8 44.8 4.9 9.2 15.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.2 10.5 92.9 62.7 41.9 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.3 12.8 80.0 58.2 46.0 6.1 11.0 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.5 10.6 8.9 77.8 58.5 42.5 4.0 8.0 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.4 7.1 11.0 89.2 61.5 39.9 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.2 10.2 11.1 94.9 63.5 43.5 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.2 11.7 87.2 61.0 44.2 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.6 11.6 9.6 78.3 58.6 43.1 4.3 8.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.8 9.2 8.3 75.5 57.0 43.8 3.5 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.4 11.4 10.2 82.9 60.3 43.8 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.5 11.5 8.5 73.2 57.3 42.6 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.5 20.6 12.6 84.4 59.6 45.7 8.4 15.4 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.9 7.6 10.2 90.0 62.0 41.8 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------