***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.7 8.8 11.4 107.3 67.9 48.5 2.6 5.0 8.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 9.8 11.7 106.0 67.3 50.2 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.2 11.7 11.8 111.0 68.9 50.1 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.8 19.1 11.0 100.0 65.9 46.9 6.7 12.0 19.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.3 12.8 10.7 100.8 65.9 47.0 4.1 7.8 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.9 10.3 84.1 60.1 46.9 3.1 6.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.5 10.3 11.6 107.2 67.7 50.2 2.4 5.3 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.3 16.6 12.3 96.2 63.8 48.3 6.1 11.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.0 11.5 11.3 103.5 66.7 48.6 3.8 7.0 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.5 12.5 12.5 99.7 65.0 49.0 4.3 7.9 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.8 10.3 96.2 64.4 47.2 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.4 10.3 9.9 89.3 61.9 46.2 3.2 6.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.3 9.8 83.3 59.7 45.5 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.1 16.4 14.7 105.2 66.5 50.9 4.7 9.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.6 13.7 11.0 100.3 66.4 46.9 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.5 9.1 9.2 82.8 59.8 44.5 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.6 9.5 12.6 104.5 67.1 48.9 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.0 13.3 13.5 97.3 63.8 50.3 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.3 10.8 11.7 106.4 67.4 50.3 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.2 15.5 16.7 98.7 64.2 51.1 5.3 10.0 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.5 11.9 11.2 105.4 67.6 47.7 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.9 10.1 12.8 101.5 66.1 49.3 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.0 11.7 11.8 105.9 67.1 50.1 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.6 11.3 13.2 105.7 66.7 50.7 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.3 13.0 11.7 104.3 67.4 47.9 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.6 9.9 84.1 60.7 45.0 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.6 9.0 11.4 102.6 66.6 47.9 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.5 12.5 10.2 93.9 63.9 45.6 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.0 16.9 14.3 95.7 63.1 50.5 6.1 11.2 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.5 9.5 11.4 105.7 67.2 50.0 2.3 5.0 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------