***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 42.9 44.9 43.0 97.8 58.4 52.3 24.3 37.3 53.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 41.1 43.3 43.6 101.1 59.8 53.1 23.8 35.4 49.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 45.7 48.6 43.0 99.3 59.0 53.2 28.0 40.7 55.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 62.2 53.9 39.3 85.6 52.1 46.3 33.5 51.6 73.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 45.7 43.9 39.3 91.3 55.0 48.7 25.9 39.4 55.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 45.2 33.2 36.7 75.3 44.6 40.8 25.1 37.4 52.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 42.5 44.6 43.4 100.8 59.8 53.0 23.6 35.9 51.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 70.1 61.0 45.0 87.8 51.0 45.9 42.4 59.7 79.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 46.1 43.9 40.7 92.0 54.9 48.3 28.0 40.0 54.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 53.5 47.8 45.5 89.3 52.1 46.4 33.1 46.1 61.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 45.6 40.4 38.2 86.5 51.9 46.3 26.7 39.0 53.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 44.1 37.8 37.9 86.6 51.6 46.2 24.2 36.5 51.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 46.1 38.6 38.0 83.0 49.9 45.0 26.0 38.9 54.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 63.5 69.0 58.3 105.1 61.3 54.9 37.1 54.9 75.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 25.0 39.4 35.7 82.8 52.2 45.3 24.3 37.6 53.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 40.0 34.1 36.5 82.8 50.3 45.3 22.6 33.8 47.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 38.9 42.2 48.0 104.8 61.9 53.4 22.3 33.1 46.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 57.7 52.8 51.9 93.4 53.6 48.4 32.6 48.8 68.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 42.5 45.2 44.5 102.3 60.4 54.0 25.9 37.1 50.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 64.8 60.8 59.2 94.4 54.1 49.4 40.3 56.8 75.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 50.3 49.5 40.9 94.1 56.2 49.7 29.2 43.3 60.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 42.3 46.0 50.5 105.7 62.2 53.6 22.9 35.1 50.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 44.1 49.2 47.4 106.5 62.6 56.5 26.4 38.5 52.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 54.7 54.7 49.5 97.5 56.9 51.4 32.7 47.7 65.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 51.3 53.3 46.3 97.4 58.4 52.3 32.2 45.6 61.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 25.2 38.9 37.7 85.2 51.1 46.3 24.9 37.8 53.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 46.7 49.1 46.1 98.0 58.6 52.9 26.8 40.7 57.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 46.0 38.6 35.5 81.1 50.5 44.6 25.5 38.2 53.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 82.7 78.3 56.1 95.5 54.8 49.7 49.4 71.6 97.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 38.2 40.1 42.5 99.1 59.0 53.0 22.3 33.3 46.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------