***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 13.4 14.0 16.6 2.3 85.1 83.4 11.0 11.9 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 13.2 14.4 16.6 2.7 89.7 88.0 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 15.4 16.2 16.8 2.4 86.1 84.6 12.6 13.6 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 11.6 13.2 14.1 2.7 90.4 88.1 8.2 9.5 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 12.1 12.7 14.7 2.2 84.9 83.5 9.3 10.3 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 10.8 11.3 11.6 1.7 81.0 79.0 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 13.3 14.4 16.6 2.7 89.0 87.4 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 7.3 8.1 12.2 2.1 84.1 82.7 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 13.2 13.7 14.7 2.0 84.6 83.4 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 12.8 13.5 13.2 2.3 86.1 84.7 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 12.1 12.6 14.3 2.1 84.1 82.7 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 10.7 11.0 13.0 1.8 80.4 79.1 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 10.8 11.0 12.4 1.2 71.3 69.9 9.1 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 13.3 13.8 14.5 2.0 82.6 81.6 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 13.4 14.6 15.8 2.6 92.0 90.2 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 12.9 13.4 13.5 1.9 81.1 79.6 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 13.6 15.0 16.5 3.0 92.8 91.2 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 11.6 12.3 12.7 2.3 85.9 84.6 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 13.3 14.4 16.7 2.8 89.8 88.3 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 7.4 7.9 10.6 2.0 81.8 80.3 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 12.7 13.4 16.1 2.2 85.9 84.4 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 12.7 14.2 16.8 3.1 92.1 90.8 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 12.8 14.0 16.9 2.9 90.1 88.8 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 12.8 13.4 14.7 2.2 84.9 83.8 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 13.1 13.8 15.9 2.3 85.0 83.4 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 11.1 11.2 11.5 1.0 68.3 67.1 9.4 10.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 13.8 14.6 16.2 2.3 85.2 83.5 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 11.5 12.5 14.3 2.4 88.8 86.7 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 11.1 11.7 11.8 2.1 83.7 82.6 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 13.5 14.5 16.8 2.6 87.9 86.3 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------