***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 11.8 12.6 14.6 1.8 78.7 71.5 9.6 10.7 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 12.2 13.0 14.2 1.9 80.2 73.0 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 14.1 14.8 14.8 1.8 79.1 72.5 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 9.8 10.7 12.0 1.7 79.9 72.8 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 10.9 11.7 12.7 1.6 77.8 71.2 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 10.2 10.7 10.5 1.7 78.7 73.8 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 12.2 13.0 14.3 1.8 79.4 72.2 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 6.3 6.9 10.5 1.7 78.7 73.4 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 12.0 12.7 12.9 1.7 79.2 73.2 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 11.7 12.3 11.4 1.7 78.8 73.2 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 11.1 11.8 12.3 1.6 78.5 72.8 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 10.4 10.9 11.4 1.7 77.8 72.5 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 10.9 11.5 11.2 1.6 77.0 72.3 8.6 9.7 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 12.3 12.9 12.8 1.8 79.1 73.3 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 12.2 12.9 13.7 1.8 83.4 76.6 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 12.0 12.6 11.8 1.7 78.0 72.5 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 12.3 13.2 14.0 1.9 82.3 74.3 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 10.8 11.4 10.8 1.7 78.3 73.0 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 12.2 12.9 14.3 1.9 80.7 73.7 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 7.0 7.5 8.9 1.7 77.0 72.0 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 11.7 12.4 14.1 1.7 78.3 72.1 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 11.3 12.2 14.1 1.9 82.3 75.0 9.2 10.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 11.8 12.7 14.5 2.0 81.6 74.9 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 11.6 12.2 12.8 1.8 79.7 73.8 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 12.4 13.1 13.6 1.7 78.3 70.9 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 10.9 11.3 10.6 1.6 75.0 70.6 8.9 9.9 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.7 14.1 1.7 78.0 70.9 9.8 11.2 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 10.5 11.3 12.4 1.7 80.5 74.2 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 10.1 10.6 10.2 1.7 78.0 73.1 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 12.5 13.4 14.5 1.8 79.2 72.3 10.0 11.2 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------