***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.2 12.3 0.2 53.1 51.7 8.9 10.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.5 12.0 0.4 56.3 54.0 8.8 10.0 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.5 12.5 0.4 56.3 54.4 11.0 12.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.1 9.9 0.4 57.9 55.9 6.3 7.6 8.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.5 9.5 10.1 0.3 56.2 54.6 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.7 8.4 0.4 58.1 56.0 7.3 8.2 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.5 12.1 0.4 56.0 53.3 9.1 10.2 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.2 8.3 0.3 55.2 54.1 2.9 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.4 10.3 0.3 54.8 53.5 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.1 9.0 0.3 55.3 54.1 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.9 9.6 0.4 57.5 55.8 8.5 9.5 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.6 8.8 0.2 54.4 53.4 7.4 8.3 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.3 9.2 8.3 0.2 53.0 52.0 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.7 10.4 0.3 55.1 53.4 9.6 10.4 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.9 11.1 0.7 62.2 59.3 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.6 9.0 0.4 56.6 54.9 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.6 11.9 0.5 57.9 55.1 9.1 10.2 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.1 8.5 0.3 54.8 53.7 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.4 12.1 0.4 56.5 54.4 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.1 6.5 0.2 52.8 52.1 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.9 11.6 0.2 53.1 52.1 8.7 9.7 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.7 11.8 0.5 57.9 55.3 8.2 9.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.0 12.1 0.4 56.8 54.7 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.0 10.2 0.4 56.4 54.8 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 8.7 10.2 10.9 0.1 51.6 51.0 8.9 10.1 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.1 8.1 0.1 51.8 50.9 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.5 11.6 0.2 52.5 51.1 8.9 10.3 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.3 10.2 0.6 60.8 58.0 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.0 8.0 0.3 54.9 53.7 6.6 7.7 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.8 12.2 0.4 56.0 53.8 9.2 10.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------