***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 7.7 9.0 11.2 -0.1 48.2 49.1 8.1 9.1 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 7.7 9.0 10.8 -0.1 48.2 49.0 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 10.1 11.2 11.3 0.0 49.2 49.7 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 6.5 8.4 -0.1 48.5 48.8 5.4 6.6 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 6.9 8.4 8.8 -0.1 48.3 48.7 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.1 7.5 6.9 -0.1 48.7 48.9 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 8.0 9.1 10.9 -0.1 47.7 48.2 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.4 3.7 7.1 0.1 51.3 50.7 2.7 3.6 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 8.3 9.5 9.2 0.0 49.3 49.4 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.8 9.1 7.9 0.0 50.2 50.0 8.0 9.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 7.0 8.5 8.2 0.0 49.2 49.2 7.4 8.5 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.1 7.4 7.6 0.0 49.9 49.7 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 6.3 7.7 6.9 -0.2 46.6 47.3 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.3 9.4 9.2 0.0 50.5 50.5 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 7.9 9.4 9.6 0.0 49.1 49.1 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 7.9 9.3 7.6 -0.1 47.9 48.3 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 8.3 9.3 10.6 -0.1 48.4 49.1 8.5 9.3 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.5 7.8 7.3 0.0 49.8 49.8 6.8 7.8 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 8.1 9.2 10.8 0.0 49.1 49.7 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.0 4.4 5.4 0.0 49.7 49.4 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.5 8.8 10.5 -0.1 49.0 49.4 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 7.2 8.4 10.5 0.0 49.1 49.6 7.5 8.4 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.6 8.9 10.8 0.1 51.2 50.9 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 7.6 8.6 9.0 0.0 50.2 50.2 7.8 8.6 9.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 8.1 9.4 9.9 -0.1 48.1 48.9 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 6.8 8.1 6.8 -0.1 47.7 48.1 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 8.0 9.6 10.6 -0.1 47.7 48.6 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 6.2 7.7 8.6 -0.1 48.5 48.9 6.7 7.8 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.0 7.2 6.8 0.0 49.7 49.6 6.3 7.2 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 8.2 9.5 11.0 -0.1 48.5 49.2 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------