***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 26.8 28.4 27.0 3.6 87.7 85.5 22.5 24.1 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 26.7 28.6 27.7 4.2 89.4 87.3 22.5 24.0 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 26.7 28.0 27.3 3.6 86.5 84.7 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 20.3 21.5 23.7 3.2 84.2 82.2 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 27.5 28.3 24.9 3.0 81.7 80.2 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 26.4 26.6 22.0 2.1 74.8 73.8 22.4 24.1 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 26.3 28.3 27.6 4.2 90.3 87.8 22.2 23.7 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 15.6 15.6 22.0 2.1 73.4 72.5 12.1 13.5 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 27.1 28.1 26.0 3.3 84.1 82.5 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 26.8 27.2 23.6 2.7 78.8 77.6 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 27.2 27.6 25.0 2.7 79.4 78.2 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 26.4 26.5 23.1 2.1 73.9 73.1 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 27.7 28.0 24.3 2.4 77.0 76.1 23.6 25.3 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 26.8 28.0 25.9 3.6 85.2 83.6 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 27.6 29.4 26.9 3.8 89.9 87.5 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 28.2 28.7 24.4 2.7 79.1 78.0 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 25.7 27.9 27.5 4.6 91.6 89.2 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 25.8 26.3 22.7 2.8 79.3 78.1 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 26.4 28.1 27.8 4.2 89.3 87.3 22.3 23.8 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 21.7 21.7 20.0 2.0 72.9 72.0 18.2 19.6 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 27.1 28.1 26.9 3.4 84.8 83.1 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 26.4 28.5 27.4 4.4 90.7 88.7 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 26.5 28.5 27.9 4.4 90.3 88.4 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 26.5 27.5 25.6 3.4 84.0 82.6 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 26.7 28.1 25.8 3.5 86.5 84.3 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 26.9 26.8 22.2 1.6 69.1 68.5 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 26.6 28.2 26.4 3.7 88.3 86.0 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 27.9 29.1 25.0 3.3 85.1 83.2 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 21.4 21.7 21.9 2.6 78.3 77.1 17.5 19.0 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 26.5 28.1 27.5 3.9 88.4 86.3 22.3 23.9 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------