***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 23.1 24.2 22.9 1.4 68.9 63.3 21.3 22.7 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 24.8 25.0 23.2 1.6 70.3 64.3 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 23.9 25.0 23.2 1.4 68.1 62.8 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 16.7 17.8 20.3 1.3 67.1 62.0 14.7 16.2 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 24.4 25.2 21.3 1.2 65.2 60.5 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 23.6 24.5 19.4 1.3 66.2 61.8 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 24.3 24.7 23.2 1.6 71.4 65.0 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.5 14.0 19.4 1.1 63.3 59.6 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 24.1 25.1 22.0 1.3 66.8 61.7 22.0 23.6 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 23.8 24.6 20.4 1.2 65.0 60.5 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 24.2 24.9 21.4 1.2 64.6 60.1 22.0 23.6 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 23.5 24.1 20.4 1.1 63.3 59.5 21.2 22.9 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 24.6 25.3 20.8 1.2 64.6 60.3 22.3 23.9 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 24.0 25.0 21.7 1.3 65.9 61.2 21.7 23.4 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 24.9 25.5 22.6 1.7 73.8 67.1 22.0 23.5 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.9 21.0 1.3 65.4 60.7 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 23.9 24.4 22.9 1.8 73.0 66.2 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 23.0 23.9 19.7 1.3 65.1 60.5 20.8 22.5 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 23.6 24.9 23.3 1.6 70.0 64.1 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 19.3 20.0 17.6 1.2 63.7 60.1 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 23.9 24.9 22.8 1.3 66.7 61.5 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 23.8 25.1 22.8 1.6 70.5 64.3 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 24.9 25.2 23.4 1.7 70.9 64.9 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 23.8 24.8 21.7 1.4 66.6 61.6 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 23.5 24.6 21.6 1.3 68.4 62.7 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.3 24.8 19.8 0.9 61.7 58.2 22.0 23.7 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 23.5 24.7 22.3 1.4 69.8 63.9 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 24.0 25.3 21.3 1.5 69.1 63.5 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.6 19.5 19.0 1.3 64.9 60.6 16.3 18.0 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 23.5 24.7 23.1 1.5 69.3 63.7 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------