***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 22.1 21.8 21.6 0.3 53.7 52.5 20.1 21.5 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 22.5 22.3 21.7 0.4 55.2 53.5 20.7 21.9 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.3 21.9 0.3 53.8 52.6 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.3 19.6 0.4 54.5 53.2 13.3 14.9 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 23.0 22.4 20.0 0.1 50.9 50.5 20.7 22.3 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 21.9 21.2 18.1 0.0 49.7 49.3 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 22.1 21.9 21.6 0.4 54.5 53.1 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.7 11.2 18.3 -0.2 47.7 48.2 9.9 11.4 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.0 20.3 0.1 50.9 50.5 20.4 22.0 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.6 19.1 0.0 49.6 49.5 20.1 21.6 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 20.3 22.1 19.7 0.0 50.0 49.8 20.5 22.1 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 19.6 21.2 19.2 -0.3 46.9 47.7 19.9 21.5 22.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 20.3 22.0 18.7 -0.3 46.1 47.1 20.7 22.3 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 22.9 22.5 20.2 0.1 51.4 50.8 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.7 20.8 0.9 60.8 58.0 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 21.0 22.8 19.4 0.0 49.5 49.5 21.2 22.8 24.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 19.9 21.7 21.5 0.5 55.6 53.9 20.1 21.3 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 19.4 21.0 18.7 0.0 49.4 49.4 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 22.3 22.2 21.9 0.5 55.4 53.8 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 15.3 16.9 16.4 -0.2 47.5 47.9 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.1 21.1 0.1 51.0 50.6 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.5 21.4 0.5 55.6 53.9 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.4 21.9 0.5 55.2 53.6 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.0 20.2 0.1 51.3 50.8 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.7 20.0 0.2 52.7 51.7 20.1 21.5 22.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 20.2 21.7 18.7 -0.3 45.8 47.0 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 22.1 21.8 20.8 0.3 53.4 52.3 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.6 20.0 0.6 56.4 54.7 20.5 22.1 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 14.6 16.4 17.9 -0.1 48.7 48.9 14.9 16.5 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.1 21.7 0.4 54.8 53.3 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------