***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 19.1 20.6 19.8 -0.2 47.4 47.1 19.5 20.8 22.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 19.5 21.1 19.9 -0.1 48.8 48.3 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 19.6 21.0 20.2 -0.1 48.1 47.9 19.9 21.2 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 11.7 13.6 17.7 -0.2 47.2 46.8 12.2 13.9 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 19.4 20.8 18.3 -0.3 46.6 46.7 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 18.7 20.3 16.5 -0.3 46.7 47.0 19.2 20.5 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 19.2 20.6 19.9 -0.1 47.9 47.6 19.5 20.8 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 9.4 10.8 16.8 -0.4 45.1 46.1 9.8 11.1 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 19.5 21.0 18.8 -0.1 48.3 48.0 19.8 21.2 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 19.0 20.6 17.7 -0.2 47.9 47.9 19.4 20.8 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 19.5 20.9 18.0 -0.3 45.9 46.3 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 18.9 20.1 17.5 -0.5 43.6 44.9 19.3 20.6 21.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 20.0 21.2 17.1 -0.5 44.1 45.1 20.4 21.7 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 19.6 21.5 18.8 0.0 49.4 49.4 20.1 21.5 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 18.6 20.5 18.6 0.0 50.2 48.5 19.1 20.5 21.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 20.3 21.7 17.7 -0.4 45.2 45.8 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 18.9 20.4 19.7 0.0 49.8 49.1 19.2 20.4 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 18.4 20.2 17.4 -0.1 49.2 48.9 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 19.3 20.8 20.1 0.0 49.4 48.8 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 15.5 16.9 15.0 -0.3 46.7 47.0 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 19.4 20.9 19.5 -0.2 47.3 47.2 19.8 21.1 22.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 19.6 21.1 19.6 -0.1 49.1 48.6 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 19.5 21.2 20.2 0.0 50.5 49.8 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 19.5 21.2 18.7 -0.1 49.2 49.1 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 19.0 20.4 18.3 -0.2 47.3 46.9 19.4 20.6 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 19.8 20.9 17.0 -0.5 43.7 44.9 20.1 21.3 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 19.4 20.8 19.1 -0.2 47.7 47.2 19.8 21.0 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 18.6 20.5 18.0 -0.1 48.0 47.5 19.1 20.7 22.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 14.5 16.1 16.6 -0.1 48.6 48.3 14.9 16.2 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 19.2 20.7 20.0 -0.1 48.0 47.7 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------