***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 23.3 23.5 22.8 1.3 73.4 68.4 21.3 22.2 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 23.6 24.1 23.1 1.5 75.9 70.8 21.7 22.6 23.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 23.7 23.9 23.1 1.3 73.2 68.3 21.9 22.7 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 16.6 16.9 20.3 1.2 71.5 66.3 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 24.0 24.0 21.1 1.0 68.2 63.7 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 22.5 23.0 19.0 0.8 64.8 60.9 21.3 22.2 23.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 23.3 23.7 23.1 1.5 76.1 71.0 21.4 22.2 23.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 13.2 12.8 19.1 0.7 62.2 59.0 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 23.8 23.9 21.8 1.1 70.5 65.4 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 23.6 23.4 20.2 0.9 67.0 62.8 21.5 22.5 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 23.9 23.8 21.0 0.9 66.4 62.3 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.9 20.0 0.6 61.3 58.3 21.3 22.3 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 23.6 24.0 20.2 0.7 62.6 59.4 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 24.0 24.2 21.6 1.2 71.7 66.9 21.9 22.9 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 23.7 24.3 22.2 1.6 79.2 72.5 21.9 22.7 23.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 24.7 24.6 20.6 0.9 65.9 61.9 22.9 23.8 24.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 22.9 23.4 22.9 1.7 78.4 73.1 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 22.8 22.8 19.6 1.0 67.9 63.4 20.9 21.8 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 23.4 23.8 23.2 1.6 76.1 71.0 21.5 22.4 23.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 19.1 18.8 17.3 0.7 63.0 59.5 17.3 18.2 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 23.8 23.9 22.6 1.1 70.6 65.7 21.9 22.8 23.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 23.7 24.2 22.8 1.6 76.9 71.8 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 23.7 24.1 23.3 1.7 77.4 71.9 21.7 22.6 23.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 23.7 23.8 21.6 1.2 71.3 66.4 21.7 22.6 23.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 23.2 23.5 21.4 1.2 72.3 67.2 21.5 22.3 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.4 19.4 0.4 58.0 55.6 22.0 23.0 23.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 23.4 23.7 22.2 1.3 74.0 68.9 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 23.9 24.2 21.1 1.3 73.4 67.8 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 18.5 18.4 18.8 0.9 66.9 62.5 16.5 17.4 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 23.4 23.7 23.1 1.4 74.6 69.7 21.5 22.4 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------