***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 3.6 6.5 5.4 43.0 38.7 26.6 4.9 9.9 17.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 3.1 7.0 6.5 52.6 43.2 29.0 4.4 9.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 3.4 6.0 5.6 48.3 40.0 27.9 4.4 8.8 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 3.2 7.0 7.0 56.8 46.2 28.3 3.9 8.1 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 2.9 5.0 5.1 43.5 37.6 26.1 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 2.1 3.4 5.8 44.1 38.6 27.7 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 2.6 6.4 6.1 50.3 42.6 27.6 4.2 8.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 5.5 8.8 6.8 48.5 38.9 28.8 7.0 12.8 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 3.1 4.4 4.7 41.2 35.9 26.9 3.9 7.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 3.8 5.8 6.0 43.7 36.1 26.5 5.1 9.4 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 2.7 5.7 5.8 52.6 42.4 26.1 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 2.9 4.9 5.5 47.0 38.5 26.9 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 2.6 4.2 5.2 37.9 35.3 22.9 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 4.2 8.5 7.6 55.5 42.2 28.7 5.4 11.6 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 2.1 4.1 5.0 41.8 40.9 24.8 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 2.6 5.1 6.1 52.1 42.7 26.6 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 3.0 6.2 6.5 47.6 40.6 27.3 4.4 8.9 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 5.1 7.4 7.4 49.2 37.7 28.7 6.1 11.4 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 3.3 7.0 6.6 53.0 43.7 29.6 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 6.5 9.4 8.8 55.5 41.5 32.6 6.7 12.6 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 3.6 5.4 4.8 43.6 36.8 26.9 4.5 9.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 2.7 5.4 6.9 48.1 40.5 27.9 3.5 8.2 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 3.3 6.3 6.3 51.3 42.1 28.7 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 3.5 6.6 6.3 47.8 38.9 26.8 4.9 10.8 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 3.4 6.1 5.6 42.9 39.4 27.8 4.4 9.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 2.6 4.3 5.2 43.3 39.1 27.7 3.2 6.7 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 3.0 5.5 5.6 42.6 38.4 26.5 4.1 9.5 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 2.4 4.8 6.2 51.4 43.9 26.8 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 7.6 11.0 7.7 50.3 38.6 29.7 8.8 16.5 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 3.4 6.8 6.2 51.9 42.9 28.6 4.6 8.8 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------