***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.1 14.5 100.4 64.4 51.9 3.3 6.3 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.6 11.2 15.4 111.3 68.0 54.2 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.2 12.2 15.2 109.8 67.3 54.5 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.5 13.8 17.0 105.5 66.0 52.2 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.2 10.2 16.8 117.4 69.5 56.1 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.2 10.3 19.0 107.9 66.0 55.3 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.7 11.8 14.8 109.8 67.2 53.9 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 18.2 21.8 20.8 141.0 75.3 62.2 3.8 8.4 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.0 11.8 17.0 120.6 70.3 56.9 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 13.1 15.2 20.6 138.5 74.8 61.9 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.1 11.4 19.3 130.3 72.4 59.5 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 10.6 11.9 19.2 137.6 74.3 60.6 2.8 5.5 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 12.7 14.4 20.7 137.5 74.7 61.8 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.8 14.7 18.3 106.6 65.3 54.0 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.9 10.2 16.3 104.8 66.9 49.9 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.4 9.5 19.1 124.5 71.6 59.0 2.6 4.8 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.1 10.1 15.0 113.4 68.4 53.9 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.8 16.0 20.0 126.3 71.9 59.0 2.8 6.6 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.6 12.2 15.6 110.9 67.7 53.9 3.2 6.5 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.2 16.1 21.1 122.4 70.6 58.3 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.9 15.9 110.6 67.6 54.1 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.1 12.0 15.4 111.3 68.0 52.7 3.5 6.8 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.5 11.6 15.3 107.8 66.2 53.4 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.3 15.0 18.0 119.5 69.9 57.7 3.6 7.4 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.4 9.2 15.4 94.4 62.8 52.0 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.5 11.9 18.2 121.3 70.4 56.9 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.5 9.3 15.2 96.7 63.4 51.7 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.7 10.0 18.0 114.5 69.0 52.7 2.2 4.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.7 22.9 21.0 124.7 71.3 58.8 4.9 10.6 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.8 9.2 15.0 109.3 67.0 53.4 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------