***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.7 8.1 83.7 59.4 42.8 2.6 5.9 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.0 6.9 8.7 83.0 59.2 40.2 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.6 11.5 9.1 95.6 63.3 45.6 3.4 7.1 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.4 22.4 11.0 96.2 64.6 44.1 7.6 14.2 23.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 5.5 19.4 10.9 113.9 69.3 48.3 5.6 10.6 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 5.0 18.7 13.0 116.0 69.8 48.5 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.6 7.4 8.4 80.0 58.3 38.4 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 8.0 26.5 13.7 134.0 73.9 51.4 8.6 14.3 21.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.9 17.9 11.3 126.7 72.3 50.9 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 7.0 24.2 13.4 133.0 73.7 52.1 7.2 12.5 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 5.8 22.2 11.7 129.4 73.0 49.8 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 5.2 21.1 12.5 136.2 74.5 50.7 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.3 19.8 12.9 131.3 73.5 50.8 5.1 9.6 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 7.0 16.8 12.1 99.4 64.3 47.2 7.4 11.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 4.3 15.9 9.5 95.4 65.1 42.8 4.4 9.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.4 16.9 12.0 126.3 72.3 49.5 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.8 8.4 73.4 55.4 37.8 1.8 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 6.2 19.7 13.4 125.1 71.5 50.0 6.4 10.9 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.5 8.7 84.2 59.5 41.4 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.6 20.8 15.3 122.4 70.8 50.8 6.6 11.6 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.2 16.8 9.6 110.2 68.0 49.2 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.5 8.9 71.8 54.4 38.5 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.7 10.1 9.0 86.7 60.4 44.0 4.5 7.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.8 18.2 11.8 114.3 68.7 48.5 6.1 10.8 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.8 13.7 8.9 85.6 60.8 44.3 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.3 17.5 13.3 125.1 72.5 50.0 4.1 8.2 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.4 10.7 8.2 78.4 58.0 42.4 3.6 7.9 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 5.7 18.7 10.5 99.9 65.9 44.5 6.0 11.3 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.6 30.4 14.1 123.7 71.0 50.1 9.8 17.1 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.8 8.6 83.8 59.2 40.7 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------