***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.1 6.7 8.8 97.8 64.8 43.3 2.1 4.1 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 9.9 8.7 107.9 67.0 44.7 2.4 5.3 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.0 9.1 9.4 97.3 64.5 44.4 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.1 19.8 10.3 117.0 70.3 47.7 4.9 9.9 17.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.6 11.2 10.1 112.4 69.2 49.5 3.4 6.2 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.8 15.1 11.2 125.0 72.2 52.8 3.4 6.9 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.6 10.5 8.8 110.2 67.6 43.8 2.4 5.4 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.7 18.3 12.3 119.5 70.5 54.9 5.3 9.8 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.7 10.2 10.0 100.4 65.9 48.4 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.8 11.1 11.7 105.5 66.9 51.8 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.1 10.3 10.2 119.9 70.7 51.7 2.5 5.1 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.7 12.6 10.8 128.3 72.9 55.0 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.2 14.8 11.3 128.8 73.3 54.5 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.1 14.3 12.0 98.3 64.9 49.7 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.2 12.8 8.8 111.3 69.4 45.8 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.1 12.9 10.4 126.4 72.6 52.3 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.7 11.0 9.5 118.0 70.0 45.2 2.5 5.4 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.8 11.5 12.0 94.9 63.6 50.6 3.7 7.4 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.1 9.9 8.7 102.2 65.6 45.9 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.6 16.4 14.7 105.1 66.5 53.4 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.1 9.4 99.3 65.7 46.3 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.0 12.5 10.5 122.9 71.3 47.4 2.9 6.0 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.2 9.1 93.3 63.6 47.4 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.8 9.0 11.3 94.3 63.7 48.2 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.2 10.6 9.3 96.0 64.9 45.6 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.2 17.1 11.6 140.0 75.5 53.6 3.9 7.6 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.3 8.0 8.9 94.4 63.9 43.5 2.5 4.9 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.8 11.6 9.7 119.3 71.1 48.7 2.4 5.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 15.7 12.5 96.0 63.8 51.6 5.6 10.4 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.1 8.8 103.4 65.8 44.0 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------