***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 44.1 33.6 36.8 80.7 46.8 43.3 23.7 36.1 51.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 23.2 35.7 39.2 87.8 50.7 45.3 23.8 35.2 48.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 27.1 40.9 39.3 88.0 51.3 46.5 27.2 39.8 54.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 33.3 58.8 45.3 93.1 55.4 47.8 33.9 52.1 74.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 25.3 45.1 42.9 96.1 56.8 49.7 25.6 39.0 55.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 24.9 42.8 49.0 96.0 55.4 47.8 25.3 38.1 53.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 23.7 35.6 38.0 86.5 49.7 44.7 23.6 36.0 50.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 41.5 75.8 53.6 108.6 63.1 52.8 42.5 59.6 79.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 27.9 45.9 43.0 96.8 56.9 50.2 28.0 40.3 54.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 32.4 55.1 51.7 103.7 60.4 51.8 32.9 45.9 60.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 26.2 50.1 47.1 107.7 62.9 53.7 26.4 38.6 53.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 23.0 49.3 48.0 110.9 64.6 53.6 23.2 35.7 50.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 46.3 49.8 50.1 105.7 61.9 52.8 26.2 38.7 54.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 63.9 55.7 49.9 90.3 51.6 47.0 37.0 53.9 74.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 23.3 41.0 39.6 87.4 53.4 44.7 24.8 38.0 54.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 40.3 43.3 47.6 105.8 62.1 53.1 22.3 33.6 47.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 22.0 32.7 39.4 85.0 48.6 43.9 22.6 33.6 46.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 56.5 54.0 52.8 97.7 56.2 49.1 31.4 47.0 66.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 25.3 37.6 39.6 87.3 50.5 45.5 26.1 37.2 50.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 42.1 66.2 60.0 100.3 57.4 49.6 43.3 58.4 75.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 28.8 46.6 39.7 91.0 54.1 48.6 28.6 42.7 59.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 22.4 34.7 41.7 84.8 48.7 43.5 23.3 35.6 50.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 25.8 37.6 39.7 85.2 49.0 45.0 26.2 38.3 52.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 55.7 52.3 47.4 93.9 54.7 49.0 32.2 47.5 65.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 31.1 42.1 39.2 79.3 46.6 42.8 31.6 45.1 60.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 46.3 49.4 48.3 105.1 61.8 51.4 25.2 38.1 54.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 48.8 35.8 37.9 77.8 44.6 41.6 26.9 40.6 57.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 24.6 43.5 44.4 95.7 56.8 47.8 25.3 37.8 52.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 49.1 80.0 55.3 97.8 55.9 48.6 49.2 71.2 97.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 22.4 33.2 38.6 86.9 50.4 45.2 22.1 33.0 45.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------