***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 13.2 14.7 16.8 3.0 90.3 85.2 10.7 11.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 12.7 14.4 16.2 2.8 90.1 84.6 9.9 11.0 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 14.9 16.4 16.4 2.6 88.6 84.1 12.3 13.4 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 10.4 10.7 12.6 1.3 74.3 72.2 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 12.1 12.7 13.4 1.7 80.2 77.4 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 10.8 11.7 11.5 1.8 83.2 80.2 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 12.8 14.1 16.3 2.8 88.9 83.7 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 7.0 8.6 12.4 2.6 91.3 87.7 4.1 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 12.8 13.4 13.9 1.8 81.9 78.8 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 12.6 13.9 13.0 2.4 89.5 86.1 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 11.9 12.5 13.0 1.8 82.0 79.3 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 10.8 11.7 12.8 2.2 87.1 84.0 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 11.4 11.9 12.1 1.6 81.1 79.0 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 13.0 14.4 14.3 2.5 90.3 86.1 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 12.9 13.0 13.9 1.0 69.3 67.9 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 12.8 13.4 12.6 1.6 80.6 78.2 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 12.9 14.2 15.5 2.7 89.5 83.9 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 11.5 13.0 12.4 2.6 91.3 87.7 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 12.8 14.4 16.2 2.8 90.4 85.2 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 7.5 8.9 10.5 2.5 90.9 87.4 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 12.5 13.4 15.7 2.2 85.1 81.3 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 12.0 13.2 15.5 2.4 88.1 83.0 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 12.5 14.1 16.1 2.8 90.8 86.3 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 12.5 13.8 14.3 2.5 90.3 86.4 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 13.2 14.6 15.7 2.6 88.3 84.0 10.4 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 11.5 12.3 12.1 1.9 84.9 81.3 9.2 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 13.7 15.6 16.1 2.8 89.7 85.0 10.4 11.7 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 11.0 11.1 12.9 1.0 69.5 67.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 10.8 12.5 11.7 2.6 91.7 88.5 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 13.2 14.7 16.6 2.9 89.9 84.9 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------