***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.7 13.7 1.1 67.7 62.3 9.8 10.7 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.4 12.0 13.6 1.0 67.8 62.3 9.9 11.0 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 13.3 14.0 13.6 1.1 68.4 63.0 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.0 9.5 11.2 0.8 64.4 59.8 7.5 8.6 9.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.2 10.8 11.1 0.9 66.1 61.3 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 9.1 9.7 9.5 0.9 65.6 60.9 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.4 12.0 13.5 1.0 67.4 61.9 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 6.0 6.5 10.0 1.3 73.8 67.6 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 11.0 11.8 11.6 1.0 68.4 63.1 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 10.7 11.6 10.4 1.2 71.5 65.5 9.6 10.5 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 10.3 11.1 10.8 1.0 68.4 63.3 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 10.1 10.4 10.7 1.2 72.0 66.4 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 9.9 10.6 9.9 0.9 66.7 62.1 8.6 9.6 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 11.9 12.1 11.8 1.2 71.1 64.8 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.6 11.8 0.8 66.0 61.0 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.8 10.4 0.9 66.5 61.7 10.1 10.9 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.8 12.9 0.8 64.0 59.3 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 9.7 10.8 10.1 1.3 73.7 66.7 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 11.9 12.0 13.6 1.1 69.1 63.5 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.1 7.0 8.5 1.3 73.1 66.1 5.0 5.8 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 10.8 11.7 12.9 1.1 68.0 62.7 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.8 12.9 0.8 63.9 59.5 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 11.5 11.7 13.4 1.2 71.2 65.2 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 10.7 11.5 11.8 1.2 71.9 65.5 9.6 10.4 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.5 12.3 12.2 1.0 66.9 61.7 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 10.0 10.7 10.2 1.0 67.4 63.0 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.8 12.9 1.1 68.1 62.6 10.0 11.4 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 9.6 10.2 11.3 0.8 64.8 59.9 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 9.0 10.3 9.5 1.3 74.2 66.8 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.6 12.4 13.8 1.1 68.3 62.8 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------