***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 8.2 9.2 11.7 -0.5 43.1 44.2 8.6 9.7 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.8 9.0 11.5 -0.5 41.3 43.0 8.3 9.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 10.4 11.4 11.5 -0.4 43.7 44.6 10.8 11.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.7 6.9 9.0 -0.3 44.9 45.8 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.3 8.5 8.9 -0.3 45.5 46.3 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.9 7.4 -0.1 48.2 48.8 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 8.3 9.3 11.4 -0.6 40.9 42.8 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.6 7.8 0.0 49.5 49.6 2.7 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.7 9.5 -0.2 45.8 46.7 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 8.3 9.4 8.2 -0.1 48.0 48.4 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 7.9 9.1 8.6 -0.1 47.9 48.2 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 6.6 8.0 8.5 0.0 49.9 49.7 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 7.3 8.6 7.9 -0.1 48.4 48.8 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 8.9 9.9 9.6 -0.4 43.9 45.0 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 8.6 9.7 9.6 -0.2 46.3 47.1 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.8 8.2 -0.1 47.4 48.0 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 8.5 9.1 10.8 -0.8 37.6 40.9 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 7.1 8.3 7.8 -0.2 47.1 47.8 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 8.2 9.3 11.5 -0.4 42.8 44.0 8.6 9.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.3 4.3 6.2 -0.3 45.1 46.7 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.9 9.1 10.8 -0.3 45.4 46.0 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 7.5 8.2 10.8 -0.7 37.6 40.7 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 7.8 9.0 11.2 -0.3 44.9 45.4 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 8.2 9.2 9.6 -0.2 45.8 46.5 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 8.1 9.4 10.1 -0.3 44.9 45.5 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 7.5 8.6 8.2 -0.1 48.4 49.0 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 8.0 9.4 10.8 -0.4 43.6 44.6 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 7.0 8.1 9.1 -0.3 45.3 46.4 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.1 7.3 7.3 -0.2 46.9 47.7 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 8.4 9.6 11.7 -0.5 42.2 43.6 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------