***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.7 10.7 -0.1 48.2 47.7 7.5 8.8 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 7.5 8.7 10.5 -0.1 48.4 47.8 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.6 10.4 -0.2 45.9 46.3 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.8 6.3 8.2 -0.1 48.5 47.8 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 6.3 7.7 8.0 -0.2 46.2 46.4 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.0 7.1 6.5 -0.2 47.3 47.8 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 7.7 8.8 10.5 -0.1 48.8 48.0 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 2.0 3.3 6.7 -0.2 46.8 47.2 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 7.6 8.8 8.4 -0.3 45.3 46.0 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 7.2 8.3 7.2 -0.3 44.9 45.7 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 6.7 7.9 7.7 -0.2 46.0 46.5 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 5.7 6.9 7.5 -0.2 46.5 47.0 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 6.2 7.3 6.9 -0.3 45.1 46.2 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.9 8.8 8.5 -0.3 44.3 45.3 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 8.1 9.3 8.8 0.1 51.3 49.7 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 7.6 8.8 7.3 -0.2 46.2 46.6 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 7.9 8.9 9.9 -0.2 46.7 46.9 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 6.1 7.2 6.7 -0.3 44.2 45.1 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.7 8.8 10.4 -0.1 48.3 47.7 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 2.5 3.8 5.3 -0.2 46.4 47.1 2.9 4.0 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 6.9 8.1 9.7 -0.2 45.9 46.4 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.9 7.9 9.9 -0.2 46.0 46.4 7.1 8.1 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.3 8.3 10.1 -0.1 47.9 47.5 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.0 7.8 8.4 -0.3 44.0 45.0 7.2 8.2 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 7.6 9.1 9.3 0.0 49.9 49.0 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.7 7.7 7.2 -0.3 45.8 46.9 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.6 9.2 10.0 0.0 50.1 48.9 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.2 7.4 8.3 -0.1 48.4 47.8 6.4 7.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.6 6.7 6.2 -0.3 44.8 45.7 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.1 10.7 -0.1 48.3 47.7 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------