***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 25.3 26.1 25.3 2.7 78.5 74.9 21.5 23.1 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 25.5 26.7 25.9 3.2 81.4 76.7 21.7 23.4 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 25.6 26.7 25.8 3.1 80.6 76.6 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 18.7 18.9 22.1 1.9 70.8 68.7 15.1 16.8 18.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 26.5 27.5 24.2 3.0 80.7 77.3 22.5 24.2 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 25.8 27.0 22.6 3.1 82.7 79.1 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 25.1 26.1 25.6 2.9 79.6 75.2 21.4 23.0 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 15.5 17.5 23.8 4.3 90.0 85.5 11.8 13.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 26.2 27.7 25.3 3.4 84.0 80.0 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 26.2 28.4 24.6 4.2 88.9 84.3 22.0 23.7 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 26.3 27.6 24.5 3.4 83.7 80.0 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 26.0 27.8 24.3 3.8 87.0 83.0 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 27.0 28.3 24.4 3.4 83.6 80.2 23.0 24.6 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 26.0 28.2 25.4 4.1 88.0 82.6 21.8 23.5 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 25.8 25.9 23.8 1.6 68.1 66.6 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 27.4 28.5 24.3 3.2 82.3 79.0 23.4 25.0 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 24.5 25.4 24.9 2.7 78.6 74.1 20.8 22.5 24.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 25.3 28.0 24.1 4.7 91.8 86.3 21.2 22.8 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 25.4 26.9 26.2 3.5 83.8 78.9 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 21.6 24.4 22.5 4.9 93.6 88.6 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 26.0 27.0 25.7 3.1 81.2 77.4 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 25.4 26.8 25.2 3.1 81.8 77.0 21.4 23.2 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 25.7 27.7 26.4 4.0 87.0 82.0 21.6 23.3 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 25.8 27.8 25.3 4.1 87.6 82.5 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 25.6 26.2 24.0 2.6 77.0 74.0 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 26.9 28.2 23.7 3.4 84.3 80.8 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 25.4 26.3 24.8 2.8 79.0 75.4 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 26.1 26.3 23.1 1.8 70.4 68.4 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 21.1 24.1 23.6 4.9 93.1 87.5 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 25.3 26.5 25.9 3.1 81.1 76.8 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------