***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 23.5 23.7 22.3 0.7 59.4 55.7 21.5 22.9 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 23.8 24.0 22.5 0.7 59.4 55.9 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.1 24.2 22.3 0.7 58.2 54.9 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.6 20.1 0.3 54.4 52.1 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.5 20.5 0.6 57.5 54.6 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.5 23.8 19.1 0.8 60.0 56.7 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.6 22.4 0.7 59.0 55.7 21.4 22.8 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.9 19.6 1.1 63.5 59.4 11.0 12.6 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.1 24.4 21.1 0.8 59.3 55.9 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 23.7 24.2 20.1 1.0 61.6 57.7 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 24.2 24.5 20.4 0.8 60.2 56.8 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.4 24.0 20.5 1.1 62.7 58.9 21.1 22.8 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.8 20.0 0.9 59.9 56.9 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.1 24.2 21.0 0.7 58.6 55.8 21.6 23.4 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.6 20.3 0.2 52.7 50.8 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.2 20.2 0.7 58.8 55.8 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 23.0 22.7 21.8 0.3 53.6 52.1 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.0 23.6 19.6 1.0 62.3 58.2 20.7 22.4 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.9 22.7 0.8 60.2 56.5 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.1 19.8 17.8 1.1 63.8 59.3 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 24.1 24.2 21.7 0.7 58.3 55.1 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 21.3 23.5 21.8 0.3 53.9 52.5 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 23.9 24.2 22.5 0.9 61.2 57.3 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 23.9 24.1 20.9 0.8 59.4 56.1 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 23.5 23.6 20.5 0.6 58.0 54.7 21.6 23.0 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 24.0 24.4 20.0 0.9 59.8 57.0 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.8 21.5 0.8 59.8 56.0 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.9 20.3 0.3 54.0 51.9 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.5 19.1 18.9 1.1 63.0 58.7 16.1 17.8 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.9 22.6 0.8 60.0 56.2 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------