***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 19.4 20.2 19.8 -1.1 37.1 39.5 19.8 21.2 22.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 20.0 21.0 20.2 -1.0 38.6 40.1 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 20.0 20.6 19.8 -1.3 35.1 37.9 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.6 12.9 17.4 -1.5 32.0 36.4 13.0 14.6 16.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 20.2 20.5 17.7 -1.5 32.1 36.5 20.5 22.0 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 19.1 19.5 16.4 -1.4 33.6 38.1 19.4 20.9 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 19.6 20.6 20.1 -1.0 38.7 40.3 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.5 9.9 16.6 -1.5 33.1 37.5 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 20.0 20.3 18.3 -1.5 32.7 36.8 20.3 21.8 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 19.7 20.0 17.2 -1.5 32.7 36.9 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 20.1 20.4 17.5 -1.5 32.7 37.2 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 19.5 19.9 17.5 -1.5 33.2 37.7 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 20.2 20.7 17.1 -1.6 32.7 37.3 20.7 22.1 23.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 20.3 21.0 18.4 -1.4 34.8 37.7 20.9 22.3 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 19.9 20.2 17.7 -1.3 33.1 37.1 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 20.8 21.1 17.3 -1.5 32.3 37.0 21.2 22.6 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 19.3 20.0 19.6 -1.2 35.5 38.1 19.8 21.0 22.1 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 19.3 19.7 16.8 -1.6 33.0 37.0 19.7 21.0 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 19.7 20.7 20.2 -1.0 38.5 40.1 20.2 21.5 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 15.4 15.9 14.9 -1.5 33.1 37.5 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 20.0 20.4 19.0 -1.4 33.5 37.2 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 20.0 20.8 19.6 -1.3 35.5 38.1 20.6 21.8 23.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 20.0 20.9 20.0 -1.0 38.3 40.0 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 19.9 20.5 18.3 -1.5 33.4 36.9 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 19.5 20.1 18.0 -1.2 35.8 38.8 19.9 21.3 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 20.0 20.3 17.2 -1.6 32.6 37.0 20.3 21.8 23.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 19.7 20.5 19.0 -1.0 38.0 40.2 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 19.9 20.1 17.6 -1.5 31.6 36.3 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.2 16.0 -1.5 33.3 37.2 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 19.7 20.6 20.2 -1.0 38.4 40.1 20.2 21.5 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------