***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 18.5 20.6 19.4 0.2 53.0 51.4 18.9 20.4 21.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 18.7 21.0 19.5 0.3 53.7 52.2 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 18.9 20.9 19.3 0.1 51.2 50.5 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 11.5 13.7 17.1 0.0 50.2 49.3 11.9 13.7 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 18.9 20.8 17.5 0.0 50.2 49.4 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 21.1 20.2 16.1 -0.2 47.5 47.1 18.8 20.4 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 18.5 20.6 19.4 0.3 53.9 52.3 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 9.2 11.3 16.6 0.2 52.3 50.7 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 18.8 20.9 18.1 0.1 50.8 49.9 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 18.5 20.6 17.1 0.1 51.4 50.4 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 19.0 20.9 17.4 0.0 50.2 49.3 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 18.3 20.5 17.3 0.0 50.3 49.2 18.8 20.5 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 19.6 21.2 16.9 -0.3 46.7 46.7 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 18.9 21.4 18.0 0.1 51.8 51.1 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 18.4 20.2 17.3 0.0 50.6 49.6 18.7 20.2 21.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 20.0 21.6 17.1 -0.1 48.2 47.9 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 18.3 20.1 18.9 0.0 50.4 50.4 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 17.9 20.0 16.7 0.2 51.9 50.8 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 18.6 20.8 19.6 0.3 53.8 52.3 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 14.8 17.2 14.9 0.3 53.3 51.5 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 18.8 20.8 18.7 0.1 50.9 50.1 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 18.9 20.8 18.9 0.0 50.6 50.6 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 19.0 21.2 19.4 0.3 53.8 52.3 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 18.8 21.0 18.0 0.1 50.9 50.3 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 18.6 20.4 17.7 0.2 52.9 51.1 18.9 20.2 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 19.4 21.0 16.9 -0.2 47.5 47.0 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 18.9 20.9 18.6 0.3 54.0 51.8 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 18.3 20.3 17.3 0.0 49.4 48.9 18.6 20.3 21.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 13.8 16.2 15.9 0.2 52.4 51.1 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 18.6 20.7 19.6 0.3 53.6 52.0 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------