***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 4.0 8.1 8.5 57.8 45.8 32.3 4.8 9.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 4.3 8.9 10.0 68.4 50.1 37.0 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 3.8 6.5 8.0 54.5 42.2 30.8 4.4 8.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 3.5 7.0 9.1 55.1 44.1 28.5 4.2 8.6 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.8 7.4 11.6 71.1 49.3 39.9 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 2.7 5.5 9.5 55.9 43.4 27.4 3.4 7.0 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 4.2 8.5 9.5 64.7 49.1 34.6 4.6 8.8 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 5.0 8.2 8.3 52.1 39.6 29.2 6.1 12.1 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 3.6 4.6 6.4 43.1 33.3 25.5 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 4.2 5.8 7.9 48.6 36.2 28.0 5.2 9.4 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 3.6 6.3 7.9 55.1 42.2 29.7 4.5 8.1 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 3.3 5.8 6.8 48.8 39.0 25.0 4.6 8.3 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 3.5 7.3 10.1 62.5 46.8 34.2 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 4.6 6.3 8.8 53.1 36.4 29.2 5.3 11.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 2.3 6.0 10.3 64.8 49.5 32.6 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 2.2 4.5 8.3 54.6 42.3 28.4 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.1 8.1 9.5 66.1 49.9 36.1 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 4.2 6.2 8.9 50.7 35.8 28.4 5.6 10.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.4 8.0 9.5 63.9 46.3 34.6 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 5.6 7.3 10.1 49.6 34.8 28.7 6.8 12.5 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 4.0 6.8 7.5 51.4 40.7 29.8 4.6 9.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.4 8.1 9.7 64.4 47.2 35.6 4.4 9.0 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 3.6 5.9 8.7 57.6 41.5 31.7 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 3.7 5.7 8.5 53.6 38.4 29.9 4.4 9.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.6 12.3 14.4 82.2 56.5 45.7 4.9 9.8 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 2.9 5.7 8.5 50.9 39.9 26.7 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 4.2 9.6 11.2 67.8 50.2 36.9 4.4 9.6 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 2.6 5.5 9.1 58.6 45.1 29.4 3.3 6.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 6.4 8.8 8.8 48.6 34.4 28.0 8.4 15.7 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.2 8.2 10.0 67.4 49.1 36.5 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------