***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.6 13.5 9.9 114.6 69.1 47.0 3.4 6.9 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.7 10.1 99.2 65.6 47.1 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.2 12.2 10.0 105.9 66.9 47.2 4.0 7.3 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.0 10.2 9.4 72.7 55.7 37.9 4.0 8.3 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.2 9.8 12.7 99.9 65.4 50.7 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.0 14.9 85.3 60.6 48.5 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.0 8.9 9.7 96.7 64.8 45.1 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.5 16.6 14.7 104.3 65.7 51.6 5.1 9.9 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.1 9.0 11.7 93.9 63.4 45.6 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.5 12.2 14.9 105.9 66.6 52.0 3.3 6.7 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 6.5 8.0 12.0 102.7 66.0 50.7 2.3 4.7 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.4 10.7 88.3 60.9 45.0 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.2 12.1 85.6 59.7 46.9 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.5 13.9 13.3 99.2 64.6 51.4 3.8 8.0 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.9 8.3 11.8 89.4 63.0 45.7 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.1 11.5 90.6 62.2 48.7 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.6 9.5 88.1 62.6 44.5 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.4 14.4 16.9 108.5 67.1 53.6 3.4 7.5 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.3 10.3 10.1 101.8 66.2 48.0 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.5 15.4 19.8 112.9 68.0 54.2 2.9 7.2 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.5 10.3 9.7 97.4 64.7 45.5 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.5 8.0 9.3 83.4 61.0 46.7 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.9 13.0 10.7 107.8 67.3 49.5 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.3 13.3 13.8 107.3 67.1 52.2 3.5 7.3 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.3 11.8 12.2 104.1 66.5 50.3 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.1 8.3 11.0 91.9 62.0 43.8 2.7 5.4 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.8 11.9 11.6 110.6 68.1 48.5 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.9 10.8 80.2 59.2 43.0 2.2 4.8 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.2 21.5 17.5 108.0 66.7 53.4 5.5 11.6 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.7 8.8 10.3 105.5 66.9 47.6 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------