***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.0 12.8 12.2 134.4 74.3 52.1 2.8 5.6 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.8 11.4 11.6 132.4 73.6 51.8 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.1 17.7 13.6 143.7 76.2 54.6 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.4 30.1 15.0 133.3 74.4 54.8 6.7 13.4 22.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 18.8 24.0 16.7 153.6 78.2 61.7 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 19.3 27.0 19.3 170.2 80.9 64.2 3.9 8.5 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.1 13.4 11.1 123.8 71.5 49.6 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 23.3 31.8 18.0 172.2 81.3 64.9 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 15.1 18.9 16.4 150.1 77.6 60.1 4.9 8.6 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 19.4 25.6 18.3 160.6 79.3 62.7 5.7 10.4 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 20.1 27.3 15.6 169.4 80.7 62.8 5.5 10.3 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 17.4 25.6 15.2 182.6 82.9 64.9 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 16.2 24.3 16.5 179.0 82.4 65.0 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.0 20.4 17.2 132.1 73.8 54.2 5.9 10.3 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.6 23.3 14.8 134.9 74.7 53.1 4.0 8.8 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 13.8 19.6 15.4 170.5 81.0 62.8 2.9 6.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.4 11.1 11.3 134.8 74.2 49.5 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 15.9 20.0 19.8 152.7 78.0 60.9 5.4 9.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.3 11.9 12.1 137.0 74.7 52.1 3.4 6.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 17.5 22.1 22.3 157.3 78.9 62.7 5.4 9.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.6 20.1 14.5 145.0 76.6 57.5 4.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.6 12.5 11.5 133.7 74.1 51.0 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.0 13.7 13.1 136.4 74.7 51.7 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.6 20.9 17.7 145.4 76.6 56.9 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.8 20.6 16.0 139.3 75.4 58.4 4.0 8.4 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 17.5 28.1 15.8 188.5 83.6 65.8 3.2 7.3 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.6 16.4 14.4 134.9 74.4 54.1 3.2 6.9 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.6 25.0 15.1 140.7 75.7 55.4 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 25.9 32.3 20.5 152.2 77.9 61.0 8.4 14.8 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.0 12.6 12.0 134.7 74.2 52.9 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------