***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.3 8.0 8.1 79.0 59.1 37.6 2.6 5.7 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.5 10.5 9.4 86.6 60.2 36.9 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 3.0 9.1 8.3 78.2 58.6 37.9 3.3 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 3.4 14.3 10.9 98.7 65.1 40.2 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.2 10.3 10.1 95.4 64.5 42.0 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.3 12.7 12.7 104.8 66.9 44.6 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 3.0 9.5 9.4 86.8 60.6 37.5 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 5.9 15.3 11.4 94.3 63.2 41.8 6.3 10.8 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 3.2 10.6 9.3 87.0 62.0 40.3 3.8 7.2 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.9 11.2 10.8 89.6 62.4 41.8 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.7 9.4 9.4 95.5 64.2 41.1 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 2.6 11.1 9.7 99.7 65.4 41.4 2.7 6.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.1 12.0 10.4 99.2 65.0 43.3 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.2 13.1 10.2 75.0 57.1 40.4 4.9 10.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.5 9.6 11.3 99.3 66.0 40.5 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.5 10.2 9.8 98.6 65.0 42.6 2.5 5.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 2.4 8.1 9.3 86.3 60.8 37.0 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.9 12.6 12.0 86.2 61.0 42.5 4.0 8.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 3.1 10.1 8.9 82.3 58.5 36.4 3.6 7.4 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.6 15.0 14.7 84.6 59.9 42.8 5.8 10.9 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 3.6 10.9 8.3 84.1 61.4 39.6 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.4 8.1 8.9 78.2 57.3 36.9 2.8 6.1 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.4 9.2 8.3 76.7 57.4 37.8 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.1 11.8 10.2 80.3 59.6 41.1 3.9 8.3 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 4.1 11.2 9.6 87.7 62.2 41.5 4.7 8.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 2.8 12.0 9.9 103.3 66.5 42.5 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 2.7 8.6 8.9 80.1 59.9 39.7 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 1.9 8.3 11.1 100.3 65.9 41.0 2.1 4.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.7 17.0 12.9 82.4 59.3 42.0 7.2 12.8 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 3.3 9.0 9.1 83.9 59.4 37.1 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------