***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 25.5 43.3 38.7 90.7 55.8 48.4 24.9 38.2 54.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 23.6 39.8 41.1 92.5 54.7 46.8 24.3 36.1 50.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 27.3 44.1 39.9 90.3 53.9 47.2 27.8 40.7 56.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 32.9 56.3 44.4 85.9 52.7 44.8 35.1 53.1 74.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 46.3 48.0 51.1 101.5 60.3 52.6 25.2 38.3 54.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 47.0 47.1 56.4 97.3 58.0 51.5 29.3 41.0 54.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 22.1 37.4 39.8 89.2 52.9 45.5 22.5 34.9 50.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 70.4 70.3 52.4 99.6 58.3 51.6 45.4 61.6 79.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 48.8 44.5 43.8 89.5 53.7 47.2 28.5 41.2 56.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 53.3 51.6 51.9 96.6 56.7 50.3 32.4 45.7 61.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 25.5 45.9 44.9 99.8 59.4 51.4 25.7 37.7 52.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 24.6 43.3 42.4 95.9 57.1 49.4 24.4 37.0 52.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 28.5 47.9 49.2 98.3 58.4 51.6 28.4 40.9 55.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 36.4 55.4 49.5 87.5 49.5 44.2 38.3 55.9 76.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 24.0 44.0 48.2 93.6 57.5 47.1 24.2 37.1 53.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 21.7 38.4 45.0 96.2 57.2 49.3 21.5 32.9 46.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 20.8 33.8 39.6 89.4 52.8 45.1 21.6 31.9 44.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 58.4 54.7 57.6 96.0 55.7 49.6 32.5 48.5 67.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 25.8 41.6 40.5 91.5 53.8 46.3 27.2 38.7 52.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 66.8 63.7 66.9 96.1 55.0 49.7 45.1 59.1 74.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 52.6 48.3 40.0 90.0 54.7 48.0 29.0 43.5 61.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 22.3 35.1 39.4 85.2 49.2 43.3 23.4 35.7 50.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 28.0 42.4 40.7 89.8 52.1 45.7 29.0 40.7 54.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 31.5 53.0 50.2 93.5 54.6 48.0 31.0 47.7 68.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 30.7 54.4 52.2 101.0 60.2 52.4 30.8 44.5 60.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 27.6 47.3 45.2 96.9 57.8 49.8 28.0 40.7 55.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.2 47.0 46.1 94.5 56.9 49.2 26.5 40.4 57.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 23.8 41.6 46.1 90.7 55.1 46.2 25.1 37.3 51.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 48.2 76.3 59.7 94.1 53.9 48.1 47.4 70.2 97.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 22.1 37.8 41.4 93.3 55.5 47.7 22.9 33.7 46.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------