***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 13.3 14.2 16.4 2.2 86.5 84.3 10.7 11.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 12.9 14.3 16.2 2.6 89.9 87.7 9.9 11.0 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 15.2 16.1 16.3 2.1 86.2 84.0 12.3 13.4 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 10.9 12.1 13.5 2.1 88.3 86.2 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 12.1 13.0 14.2 1.8 83.4 80.9 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 10.7 11.0 10.9 1.1 75.8 73.1 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 13.0 14.5 16.4 2.8 91.9 89.7 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 6.9 7.8 11.8 1.9 85.2 83.2 4.1 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 12.8 13.3 14.1 1.6 80.1 78.0 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 12.6 13.5 12.7 2.0 86.1 84.0 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 12.0 12.4 13.7 1.7 81.3 79.6 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 10.7 11.2 12.6 1.6 81.7 79.9 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 10.2 10.8 11.6 0.6 64.6 63.1 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 13.1 13.8 14.0 1.9 84.8 82.7 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 13.5 14.2 15.4 1.9 86.4 84.7 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 12.8 13.0 12.8 1.2 76.1 74.3 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 13.1 14.6 16.1 2.9 92.6 90.4 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 11.5 12.5 12.1 2.0 86.8 84.7 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 13.1 14.3 16.3 2.6 89.7 87.5 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 7.4 7.9 10.0 1.5 80.9 78.7 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 12.6 13.2 15.3 1.8 83.0 80.9 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 12.3 14.0 16.5 3.0 93.5 91.4 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 12.7 13.9 16.3 2.5 88.8 86.6 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 12.6 13.4 14.1 2.0 86.5 84.5 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 13.3 14.0 15.4 1.9 83.4 81.0 10.4 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 11.2 11.4 11.2 0.9 71.5 69.1 9.2 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 13.8 14.9 15.8 2.1 85.0 82.8 10.4 11.7 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 11.6 12.4 13.8 1.8 85.1 83.1 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 10.7 11.5 11.2 1.8 84.5 82.5 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 13.4 14.6 16.5 2.5 89.1 86.9 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------