***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 11.0 10.8 13.0 1.0 66.2 61.5 8.6 9.7 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 11.2 10.8 12.5 0.9 65.1 60.6 8.3 9.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 13.0 12.8 12.9 0.9 65.4 61.2 10.8 11.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 8.7 8.4 9.9 0.8 64.6 61.1 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 10.1 9.7 10.1 0.7 63.8 60.9 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 9.2 8.9 8.4 0.7 63.9 60.7 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 11.2 10.9 12.6 1.0 65.8 60.8 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 4.7 4.4 8.4 0.6 62.8 60.3 2.7 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 11.1 10.9 10.4 0.8 64.8 61.4 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 10.6 10.4 9.0 0.8 64.5 61.4 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 10.3 10.0 9.5 0.6 62.6 59.9 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 9.1 8.8 8.9 0.7 63.3 60.3 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 9.8 9.5 8.4 0.7 64.1 60.8 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 11.2 11.2 10.7 1.0 67.1 62.9 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 11.2 10.6 10.9 0.6 61.3 58.2 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 11.1 10.8 9.0 0.7 64.1 60.9 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 11.1 10.9 12.3 1.0 65.9 61.1 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 9.7 9.4 8.3 0.8 65.6 62.3 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 11.1 10.8 12.6 0.9 65.6 61.1 8.6 9.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 5.8 5.4 6.6 0.8 64.4 61.9 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 10.7 10.5 11.9 0.9 65.4 61.6 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 10.2 10.0 12.3 1.0 67.5 62.6 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 10.5 10.4 12.5 1.0 66.8 62.2 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 10.5 10.4 10.2 0.8 65.8 62.0 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 11.3 10.8 11.5 0.9 64.6 60.8 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 9.8 9.6 8.3 0.8 65.3 61.6 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 11.7 11.4 12.3 1.0 66.0 61.3 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 9.6 9.2 10.0 0.7 63.7 60.3 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 8.7 8.4 7.8 0.8 64.2 61.3 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 11.6 11.3 12.8 0.9 65.5 60.8 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------