***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 7.3 8.7 11.0 -0.1 48.8 49.0 7.5 8.8 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.3 8.7 10.6 -0.1 48.9 49.4 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 9.6 10.7 11.0 -0.2 47.7 48.4 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.8 6.0 8.0 -0.3 44.8 45.5 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.5 7.6 8.3 -0.4 44.0 45.3 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.1 6.8 -0.2 46.4 46.8 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 7.5 9.0 10.8 0.1 51.4 50.9 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 3.9 3.1 6.6 -0.4 43.7 45.4 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 7.7 8.8 8.7 -0.3 45.1 46.2 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.3 7.3 -0.3 44.9 46.3 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.8 7.7 7.8 -0.4 43.4 44.9 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.9 6.7 7.1 -0.4 43.4 44.8 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.3 7.2 6.6 -0.4 43.6 44.5 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.0 9.0 8.9 -0.1 48.4 49.0 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 8.0 8.9 9.1 -0.3 44.7 44.8 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 7.7 8.7 7.2 -0.4 43.9 44.8 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 7.8 9.1 10.5 0.1 50.8 50.9 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.3 6.6 -0.3 45.6 47.0 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 7.6 8.8 10.6 -0.1 48.0 48.8 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.7 3.7 5.0 -0.3 44.7 46.3 2.9 4.0 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 6.9 8.1 10.1 -0.2 46.4 47.2 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 6.8 8.1 10.4 0.0 50.5 50.8 7.1 8.1 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.2 8.3 10.6 -0.1 48.0 48.8 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.6 8.0 8.4 -0.2 47.0 48.0 7.2 8.2 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 7.6 8.9 9.6 -0.2 46.7 47.2 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.7 6.6 -0.2 46.1 46.5 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 7.5 9.1 10.5 0.0 49.4 49.1 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.2 7.2 8.2 -0.3 45.0 45.3 6.4 7.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 7.5 6.7 6.2 -0.3 44.8 46.6 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 7.6 9.1 10.8 -0.1 48.8 49.3 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------