***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 10.9 11.0 13.3 0.8 69.3 63.4 9.6 10.2 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 11.0 11.1 12.9 0.8 71.4 65.4 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.0 13.2 0.7 68.2 62.8 11.7 12.3 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.5 10.4 0.6 67.8 62.4 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.9 10.8 0.5 64.0 59.5 8.5 9.3 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.8 8.6 0.4 61.9 57.8 7.8 8.4 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 11.0 11.2 13.1 0.9 73.8 67.0 9.7 10.3 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.9 8.9 0.5 66.6 61.7 3.7 4.3 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.8 11.0 0.5 64.0 59.6 9.7 10.3 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.6 9.6 0.6 67.9 62.7 9.3 9.9 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.9 10.3 0.4 62.6 58.6 8.8 9.5 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.9 9.5 0.4 63.9 59.5 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.2 8.9 0.2 56.8 54.3 8.3 9.0 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.7 11.2 11.1 0.7 70.5 64.4 9.9 10.5 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.0 11.7 0.5 64.9 60.5 9.9 10.5 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.7 9.6 0.3 60.7 57.1 9.7 10.3 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 11.0 11.2 12.7 1.0 74.4 67.8 9.8 10.4 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.6 8.9 0.6 69.1 63.6 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 10.9 11.0 13.0 0.8 71.3 65.5 9.6 10.2 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.7 7.2 0.5 66.1 61.7 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.5 12.3 0.6 65.8 60.8 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 10.1 10.4 12.9 1.1 76.7 69.7 8.8 9.4 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 10.5 10.6 13.0 0.8 71.3 65.5 9.1 9.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 10.3 10.4 10.8 0.6 69.3 63.5 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.1 12.1 0.6 65.5 60.3 9.6 10.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.6 8.7 0.4 63.0 58.8 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.5 12.7 0.7 68.5 62.6 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.3 10.6 0.5 65.4 60.8 8.1 8.8 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 8.3 8.7 8.4 0.6 67.4 62.5 7.4 8.0 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 11.3 11.4 13.2 0.8 70.8 64.9 9.8 10.5 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------