***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 26.1 28.9 27.2 3.8 93.4 90.8 21.5 23.1 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 26.2 28.5 27.1 3.7 91.5 88.9 21.7 23.4 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 26.1 27.7 26.7 3.1 87.2 84.3 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 19.5 20.9 22.9 2.7 85.7 83.3 15.1 16.8 18.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 26.5 27.3 24.3 2.2 79.7 77.1 22.5 24.2 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 25.2 25.1 21.4 1.0 66.4 64.9 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 25.8 28.8 27.2 4.1 94.0 91.3 21.4 23.0 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 15.1 15.1 21.9 1.5 71.6 69.5 11.8 13.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 26.2 27.1 25.2 2.2 80.2 77.6 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 26.0 26.6 23.2 2.0 77.6 74.9 22.0 23.7 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 26.2 26.3 24.5 1.7 73.4 71.2 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 25.5 25.4 23.0 1.3 69.0 67.2 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 26.5 26.3 23.8 1.2 67.2 65.6 23.0 24.6 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 26.4 28.5 25.9 3.5 89.5 86.3 21.8 23.5 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 26.5 27.5 25.9 2.6 82.9 81.2 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 27.1 27.1 23.8 1.5 71.1 69.1 23.4 25.0 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 25.3 28.4 26.9 4.2 94.3 91.6 20.8 22.5 24.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 25.0 25.9 22.5 2.2 79.5 76.5 21.2 22.8 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 26.0 28.1 27.1 3.6 90.3 87.8 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 21.1 21.3 20.3 1.7 73.4 71.0 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 26.3 27.7 26.3 2.9 86.1 83.2 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 26.3 29.9 27.3 4.5 95.3 93.0 21.4 23.2 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 26.1 28.0 27.1 3.5 88.8 86.2 21.6 23.3 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 25.9 27.3 25.2 2.8 84.5 81.3 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 26.1 27.9 25.4 3.1 88.6 86.0 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 26.5 26.6 22.8 1.5 71.5 69.2 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 26.1 28.8 26.5 3.8 93.4 90.8 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 26.8 27.6 24.0 2.3 81.3 79.2 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 20.7 21.3 21.8 2.0 77.0 74.2 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 26.0 28.2 27.1 3.7 91.2 88.6 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------