***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 18.4 20.4 20.2 0.0 50.2 49.9 18.9 20.4 21.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 18.6 20.6 20.0 0.0 49.8 49.7 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 18.9 20.7 20.5 -0.1 49.0 49.0 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 11.6 13.8 18.1 0.1 51.1 50.2 11.9 13.7 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 18.9 20.6 18.7 -0.2 47.6 48.0 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 21.1 20.4 17.3 0.0 49.8 49.8 18.8 20.4 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 18.4 20.5 20.1 0.2 51.9 51.0 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.4 11.0 17.8 -0.2 48.1 48.4 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 18.9 20.7 19.2 -0.2 48.3 48.6 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 18.6 20.4 18.4 -0.1 49.4 49.3 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 19.0 20.7 18.8 -0.3 47.0 47.6 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 18.6 20.2 18.6 -0.4 46.5 47.3 18.8 20.5 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 22.1 21.1 17.9 -0.4 46.2 47.4 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 19.0 21.1 19.1 0.0 49.5 49.5 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 18.4 20.3 18.8 0.2 51.9 50.9 18.7 20.2 21.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 20.0 21.6 18.5 -0.2 47.8 48.3 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 18.2 20.3 19.8 0.2 52.2 51.2 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 18.0 19.8 18.0 -0.1 49.3 49.5 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 18.4 20.4 20.2 -0.1 49.2 49.2 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.7 15.7 -0.2 47.7 48.4 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 18.8 20.6 19.8 -0.1 48.8 48.8 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 18.8 21.0 19.9 0.2 52.1 51.2 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 18.8 20.8 20.4 -0.1 49.2 49.2 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 18.8 20.8 19.2 0.0 49.6 49.5 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 18.5 20.2 18.6 0.0 49.7 49.4 18.9 20.2 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 19.5 20.9 18.0 -0.3 46.7 47.7 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 18.7 20.6 19.6 0.1 51.0 50.3 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 21.1 20.5 18.5 0.2 51.8 50.8 18.6 20.3 21.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 14.0 15.7 17.1 -0.2 47.8 48.5 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 18.4 20.4 20.1 0.0 49.7 49.6 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------