***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 22.9 23.0 23.0 1.3 71.7 66.3 21.0 21.9 22.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 23.2 23.3 22.9 1.2 69.2 64.4 21.4 22.3 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 22.7 23.3 23.1 1.0 66.7 62.4 21.5 22.4 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 16.3 16.3 20.2 1.0 68.1 63.0 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 23.0 23.3 21.1 0.7 61.8 58.4 21.8 22.7 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.5 19.2 0.5 59.8 56.2 21.0 21.9 22.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 23.0 23.1 23.0 1.4 73.4 67.5 21.1 21.9 22.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.6 19.7 0.6 60.8 57.3 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 22.8 23.2 21.8 0.8 63.2 59.4 21.6 22.5 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 22.5 23.0 20.6 0.9 65.1 60.6 21.2 22.2 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 22.9 23.1 21.3 0.5 58.9 56.1 21.7 22.6 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.4 20.6 0.4 56.6 54.3 21.0 22.0 22.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.3 20.5 0.3 54.8 52.9 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 23.7 23.9 22.0 1.3 71.6 65.6 21.6 22.6 23.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 22.6 23.1 21.7 0.9 65.4 61.2 21.5 22.3 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.9 20.8 0.5 58.5 55.7 22.5 23.5 24.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 22.5 22.7 22.7 1.4 73.6 67.8 20.7 21.5 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 21.9 22.4 20.1 1.0 66.6 61.7 20.6 21.5 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 23.0 23.0 23.0 1.1 68.2 63.6 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.6 17.8 0.6 62.0 58.3 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 22.8 23.3 22.6 1.0 66.7 62.2 21.6 22.5 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 23.4 23.7 22.9 1.6 75.5 69.2 21.3 22.2 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 23.3 23.3 23.2 1.2 68.2 63.6 21.4 22.3 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 22.7 23.4 21.8 1.1 68.1 63.1 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 22.9 22.8 21.4 1.0 67.8 63.0 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 23.1 23.1 20.1 0.4 57.1 54.7 21.7 22.7 23.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 23.1 23.3 22.4 1.3 72.4 66.6 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 22.8 23.4 20.9 1.0 66.4 61.8 21.5 22.5 23.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.5 18.0 19.2 0.8 63.6 59.6 16.2 17.2 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 23.0 23.0 23.0 1.2 69.2 64.4 21.2 22.0 22.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------