***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 3.3 3.9 4.3 29.3 28.8 19.6 4.8 9.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 2.9 3.3 3.5 23.9 26.5 17.4 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 2.8 3.6 4.3 29.7 28.9 18.9 4.4 8.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 2.7 4.1 5.4 30.5 31.9 20.9 4.2 8.6 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 2.7 3.2 4.5 30.9 30.1 19.8 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 2.8 3.9 5.6 35.0 35.4 24.8 3.4 7.0 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 2.9 3.8 4.1 28.0 29.2 18.5 4.6 8.8 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 5.1 5.0 5.7 30.5 28.9 22.5 6.1 12.1 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 3.1 3.7 4.7 31.5 29.1 19.1 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 3.9 4.2 5.6 31.1 28.3 20.9 5.2 9.4 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 3.4 4.1 4.4 30.0 30.9 20.5 4.5 8.1 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 3.7 4.1 4.5 29.1 30.3 22.0 4.6 8.3 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 3.3 4.8 5.2 33.7 35.8 23.3 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 3.3 4.5 6.7 35.1 30.4 19.7 5.3 11.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 2.1 3.4 5.0 30.6 36.5 21.2 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 2.3 3.1 4.8 32.0 33.6 22.0 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 2.6 2.7 3.3 21.7 24.3 16.1 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 4.4 4.6 7.0 36.4 29.5 22.4 5.6 10.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 3.2 3.5 3.7 24.9 26.5 17.7 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 6.0 5.9 7.5 37.4 29.9 24.8 6.8 12.5 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 3.0 4.3 5.0 34.8 31.3 20.1 4.6 9.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 2.8 2.4 3.0 18.4 21.7 15.3 4.4 9.0 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 2.8 3.5 4.6 29.6 29.8 19.4 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 2.9 4.0 6.2 36.7 31.6 21.0 4.4 9.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 3.5 4.5 5.4 33.3 30.9 20.3 4.9 9.8 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 3.6 4.8 4.7 32.1 35.4 25.3 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 3.3 3.7 4.8 30.6 30.4 20.3 4.4 9.6 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 2.5 3.5 5.2 31.3 34.3 21.7 3.3 6.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 6.7 7.0 7.2 36.7 29.3 23.0 8.4 15.7 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 3.0 3.4 3.7 25.4 28.0 18.2 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------