***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.1 9.5 75.8 57.5 40.6 3.4 6.9 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.1 9.2 10.3 95.5 63.5 42.0 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.2 9.0 9.5 75.6 56.6 41.8 4.0 7.3 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.2 12.1 11.7 81.8 60.5 44.5 4.0 8.3 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.5 10.2 76.1 57.5 42.9 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.7 7.0 13.5 87.4 60.6 47.8 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.9 8.7 10.5 97.6 64.1 41.3 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.5 13.6 12.4 83.1 59.5 48.9 5.1 9.9 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.9 7.4 10.1 76.6 57.2 43.1 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.6 8.9 11.7 78.1 57.6 46.1 3.3 6.7 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.8 10.6 75.4 56.2 44.6 2.3 4.7 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.1 10.9 82.2 59.3 48.1 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.1 11.5 80.7 59.3 47.7 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.3 11.5 13.1 84.0 59.2 45.5 3.8 8.0 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.8 8.2 12.3 84.9 62.6 43.8 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.0 11.1 79.0 58.2 46.4 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.5 8.6 10.4 101.1 66.1 44.7 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.0 12.7 79.4 57.2 46.9 3.4 7.5 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.1 8.6 9.9 87.8 60.8 41.5 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.2 14.9 83.8 57.8 49.3 2.9 7.2 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.0 7.3 9.5 72.0 54.7 39.9 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.0 8.5 10.0 92.0 62.7 44.3 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.9 9.7 9.9 81.2 58.4 41.4 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.1 11.4 76.7 56.1 44.3 3.5 7.3 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.7 8.7 10.6 73.5 56.4 40.6 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.4 12.1 81.4 58.5 45.8 2.7 5.4 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.5 8.3 10.1 75.3 57.1 40.0 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.6 7.4 11.7 82.5 61.2 45.3 2.2 4.8 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.4 15.4 13.4 80.9 57.2 47.4 5.5 11.6 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.6 7.2 10.0 87.6 60.7 41.0 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------