***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.8 10.4 11.8 108.4 68.0 51.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.9 9.3 11.6 105.3 67.5 50.7 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.2 13.3 11.8 106.2 67.5 51.6 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.4 26.0 13.7 114.7 70.0 53.6 6.7 13.4 22.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.6 17.4 12.1 109.1 68.4 52.4 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.6 17.8 13.2 114.2 69.7 50.8 3.9 8.5 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.3 11.6 11.7 105.0 67.3 50.7 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.7 21.4 13.3 111.6 68.9 51.4 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.2 14.8 12.9 111.8 69.1 52.5 4.9 8.6 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.2 18.4 13.9 110.9 68.6 51.8 5.7 10.4 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.0 18.0 11.2 106.4 67.7 50.9 5.5 10.3 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.3 15.5 11.2 111.1 69.0 51.2 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.8 15.3 12.8 114.9 70.1 51.9 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.4 17.3 15.4 108.8 68.0 51.5 5.9 10.3 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.7 18.8 13.0 109.5 69.4 50.2 4.0 8.8 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.2 12.1 11.5 108.0 68.1 50.3 2.9 6.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.7 9.0 12.2 107.2 68.1 50.3 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.9 15.4 15.6 112.1 68.8 51.3 5.4 9.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.8 11.8 107.8 68.0 51.6 3.4 6.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.6 17.8 18.7 123.6 71.7 52.8 5.4 9.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.2 15.5 12.2 109.6 68.3 51.8 4.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.0 10.0 12.6 107.2 67.9 51.1 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.2 11.5 12.2 109.4 68.3 52.8 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.2 15.6 14.0 104.6 67.0 50.6 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.5 16.3 13.2 110.0 68.6 53.0 4.0 8.4 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.0 15.8 12.5 111.9 69.5 51.2 3.2 7.3 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.7 13.0 12.2 108.0 67.9 52.1 3.2 6.9 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.3 20.1 12.9 112.9 69.6 51.8 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.1 25.1 16.2 113.4 69.0 51.9 8.4 14.8 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.8 11.4 103.5 66.9 50.7 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------