***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.8 7.4 8.3 76.5 56.9 40.6 2.6 5.7 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.3 8.7 7.8 69.2 54.2 38.9 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.5 8.5 8.6 76.5 56.4 40.5 3.3 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.2 11.8 9.4 83.5 60.0 42.5 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.5 9.1 9.3 85.5 60.5 43.8 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.7 9.8 9.4 82.4 59.1 41.1 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.8 7.7 7.6 68.7 53.6 38.6 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.2 13.3 9.9 79.7 57.8 44.0 6.3 10.8 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.9 9.6 9.3 82.1 58.9 43.7 3.8 7.2 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.4 10.0 10.1 81.5 58.3 44.7 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.9 8.6 82.3 59.1 43.2 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.0 8.1 8.2 77.4 57.3 42.0 2.7 6.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.3 8.7 78.5 57.8 42.2 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.3 13.9 11.8 82.6 59.1 43.9 4.9 10.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.6 6.9 7.8 72.5 56.5 38.2 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.7 8.1 8.7 82.0 58.9 42.4 2.5 5.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.8 6.8 8.5 71.3 55.5 39.1 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.1 11.6 86.5 60.0 46.7 4.0 8.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.9 8.8 8.1 71.3 54.8 39.1 3.6 7.4 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.4 13.2 83.8 58.7 46.2 5.8 10.9 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.1 9.8 8.6 79.0 57.7 42.1 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.7 8.9 72.3 55.9 39.5 2.8 6.1 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.0 9.1 8.8 76.3 56.8 39.8 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.6 11.5 10.8 83.0 59.0 44.4 3.9 8.3 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.2 10.1 9.1 79.9 58.0 41.7 4.7 8.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.3 8.3 8.1 72.0 56.3 41.2 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.0 7.7 8.5 76.7 56.9 40.6 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.2 6.5 8.6 80.6 58.9 40.3 2.1 4.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.7 17.5 12.4 88.2 60.5 47.1 7.2 12.8 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.8 7.8 7.9 71.0 54.6 39.0 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------